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Democrats are trouncing Republicans in state elections since Trump took office

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A blue wave may already be cresting.

Democrats have flipped 28 Republican-held seats in state legislatures across the country over the past 14 months, a sign that the GOP is indeed at risk of losing control of the House, and maybe even the Senate, in the midterms.

Democratic wins have come even in deep red states, including Texas, Arkansas and Mississippi, and often by margins that make Republican leaders uneasy.

“I'm ringing the alarm bell,” said Brendan Steinhauser, a Texas GOP consultant who has run campaigns for Republicans in the state, including Sen. John Cornyn and Rep. Dan Crenshaw.

The results of these state-level elections reflect the immediate concerns of the electorate, provide a launching pad for the next generation of national leaders and could influence the future makeup of Congress through redistricting. They may also give both Republicans and Democrats a preview of the midterm battles to come.

For Republicans, the results are a sign that they must do more to motivate low-propensity voters who helped carry President Donald Trump back to the White House, said a senior GOP campaign operative, who was granted anonymity because he didn’t have permission from the party to speak freely about the losses.

“We’re the party of low propensity voters now,” said the operative. “How do we turn out these Republican voters in a midterm election?”

One of the first signs that Democrats were building momentum came in August, when an Iowa Senate district swung more than 20 points to elect Democrat Catelin Drey. It was the second seat Democrats flipped in the state last year, and the moment that broke the Republican Senate supermajority in the General Assembly.

Then in November, Democrats did it again: They flipped three of the six Republican-held districts in a Mississippi special election, again breaking a GOP Senate supermajority.

“You are seeing people just vote for change,” said Brian Robinson, a GOP consultant in Georgia, where Republicans lost a seat in December.

Robinson, an outside adviser for the state House GOP caucus, says Republicans are blamed for high prices because they’re in charge.

“If it's any one thing, it is [the] cost of living.” Robinson said, arguing that Trump will do something to reduce prices before the midterms. In recent weeks, the president has indeed taken steps, including by touting a pledge from tech companies to reduce energy costs associated with data centers and releasing 172 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The Iran war, which has sent global oil prices skyrocketing, complicates that effort.

After Democrats flipped 13 Virginia seats and five New Jersey seats in November, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee went back to reassess state races around the country. They expanded their 2026 target map to 42 chambers and invested $50 million in changing the makeup of state legislatures — the widest map and largest single-year budget DLCC has ever approved.

Legislatures in Arizona and New Hampshire are now on the “flip” list, and the DLCC hopes to break or prevent GOP supermajorities in red states across the South and Midwest. Their success could give Democrats more state power over judicial nominees, protect the veto power of Democratic governors in states with GOP-led legislatures and hand Democrats greater influence over redistricting.

Republicans, meanwhile, are waiting for the funding to hit. As of January, the RNC has just over $100 million and Trump’s MAGA Inc. PAC has $300 million. State Republicans say when that cash flows into midterm races, it will enable them to get low-propensity voters to vote.

Turnout was a major point of discussion at an RNC conference call that Wisconsin GOP Chair Brian Schimming attended Tuesday, and he says Republicans will dedicate a lot of resources to motivate voters in November.

“We've met with the White House more than once, and they keep track of the target states pretty closely,” said Schimming, adding he also expects Trump and Vice President JD Vance to stump in key Wisconsin congressional districts closer to the election. “They are big base motivators.”

In the meantime, Democrats keep flipping state seats. The latest came Tuesday night, when Bobbi Boudman beat Republican Rep. Dale Fincher in a New Hampshire Senate seat that Trump won by 9 points.

On March 24, voters will decide in a special election who represents the Florida state House seat that includes Mar-a-Lago. Democrat Emily Gregory, a small business owner who is running against Republican Jon Maples, a businessman, saw her total campaign earnings jump by nearly 75 percent between Jan. 9 and Feb. 12.

In November, a national PAC connected Gregory with Drey, who flipped the Iowa seat in August. Drey advised Gregory to find the affordability issue that matters most to her district — the way energy costs resonate in New Jersey and property insurance does in Florida.

“In this moment, we have all of the issues on our side. We have all of the momentum on our side,” Gregory recalled Drey telling her. “It's just up to you as a candidate to get in front of every single voter you can and communicate that message.”

Is the U.S. at ‘War’? Politicians Disagree

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Is the U.S. at “war” with Iran? Americans are getting conflicting messages from the Trump administration and congressional leaders.

“We are not at war. We have no intention of being at war,” House Speaker Mike Johnson said at a press conference on March 5, hours after Republicans in the House blocked a war powers resolution that would have required congressional approval for any further military action against Iran. Instead, Johnson called the military action a “limited operation.”

But in remarks to reporters on March 7 — and on other occasions — “war” is exactly how President Donald Trump has described it.

“We’re winning the war by a lot,” Trump told reporters on March 7. “The war itself is going unbelievably. It’s as good as it can be.”

While there are varying definitions of war even among academics who study such things, the war-or-not political debate is mostly about the legal definition of war according to the Constitution, and the implications that come with such a designation.

While Article II of the U.S. Constitution designates the president as “Commander in Chief of the Army and Navy,” Article I, Section 8 of the Constitution gives Congress — and only Congress — the power “To declare War.” In other words, the president is obligated to seek authorization from Congress before he initiates a war.

But Congress hasn’t formally declared a war since World War II. And it didn’t happen with the military attack initiated by Trump in Iran. Rather, in accordance with the 1973 War Powers Resolution, Trump provided a report to Congress on March 2 about the administration’s justification for the U.S.-Israeli joint strikes against Iran initiated on Feb. 28.

“So currently, if political leaders were to say that this is a war, they would also be acknowledging that the administration’s actions were unconstitutional,” Stephanie Savell, director of Brown University’s Costs of War project, told us.

In a March 1 post for his Substack, Foreign Exchanges, journalist Derek Davison wrote that Trump had “made a little verbal slip” when referring to the military operation as a war.

“You’re not supposed to refer to these sorts of things as ‘wars’ when you’re the president of the United States, at least not at their outset, because by law wars have to be declared by Congress,” Davison wrote. “Presidents have leeway to engage in military action prior to a congressional vote but only in self-defense, which was plainly not the case here even if one were to stretch that term beyond all comprehension.”

But Trump numerous times has referred to the situation with Iran as a war.

“We have unlimited middle and upper ammunition, which is really what we’re using in this war,” Trump said in remarks on March 3.

“We’re doing very well on the war front, to put it mildly, I would say,” Trump said on March 4.

In his remarks on March 7, when talking about American casualties, Trump commented, “It’s part of war. It’s a sad part of war. It’s the bad part of war.”

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has also repeatedly referred to the armed conflict as war.

“We didn’t start this war, but under President Trump, we are finishing it,” Hegseth said in a press conference on March 2. “We set the terms of this war from start to finish.”

Those characterizations are in stark contrast to the way many Republican members of Congress have described the military conflagration.

“Nobody should classify this as war. It is combat operations,” Republican Rep. Brian Mast said on CNN the day the U.S. and Israel initiated airstrikes on Iran.

In a press conference on March 3, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries pointed to Trump’s own words to argue that the president “has unconstitutionally and illegally chosen to launch a war.”

“He’s describing it as a war,” Jeffries said. Hegseth “is describing it as a war. Other members of the administration are describing it as a war. And it’s a requirement under the Constitution that it’s members of Congress who make the decision as to whether to get us entangled in this kind of armed conflict.”

As we’ve written before, legal experts have told us that under an originalist interpretation of the Constitution, congressional approval for the use of military force against another country is required. But in practice, several presidents have launched military actions in other countries without congressional authorization.

Robert Johnson, director of Oxford University’s Changing Character of War Center, told us via email, “There is a political reason not to call the campaign against Iran a war. The President must consult Congress and gain approval after 60 days. Until that time, he is permitted to take actions which are in self-defense of the United States, a power the POTUS was granted because [of] the Cold War and the speed at which a nuclear armed attack could be launched.”

“Most scholars and lawyers do not use the term war, even when they should,” Johnson said. “The term in use is armed conflict. This is further defined as an armed attack. A pattern has been set in the last three decades of not declaring war and taking military action, that is, using lethal force to obtain political ends and to neutralise an emergent threat, such as a terrorist attack. Legally, the criteria are that it should be a threat which cannot be dealt with reasonably by any other means and it should be ‘imminent’ as a threat.”

Other Definitions of War

The media and academics, of course, use other definitions of war that have nothing to do with the legal or constitutional considerations.

The Associated Press, for example, decided on March 1 to start using the word “war” to refer to the Israeli-U.S. strikes on Iran and Iran’s retaliation.

“This reflects the scope and intensity of the fighting,” the AP wrote.

The AP noted that the Merriam-Webster dictionary defines war broadly as, “A state of usually open and declared armed hostile conflict between states or nations,” or “a state of hostility, conflict, or antagonism.”

“Even though none of the countries have officially declared war, the attacks by the United States and Israel, combined with Iran’s retaliation, meet those criteria,” the AP noted. “The decision by the Trump administration and Israeli leaders to attack and the subsequent destruction and casualties are enough to call the actions, and Iran’s response, a war. Trump himself has used the word war to describe the conflict.”

Johnson, of the Changing Character of War Center, said, “As a phenomenon, war is a contest of organised polities using lethal armed force at scale. Under this definition, the U.S. is ‘at war.'”

Savell, at the Costs of War project, cited the words of Douglas Fry, an anthropologist of war, in his 2007 book “Beyond War: The Human Potential for Peace.” Fry defined war as: “A group activity, carried on by members of one community against members of another community, in which it is the primary purpose to inflict serious injury or death on multiple nonspecified members of that other community, or in which the primary purpose makes it highly likely that serious injury or death will be inflicted on multiple nonspecified members of that community in the accomplishment of that primary purpose.”

“This fits what the US is doing in Iran,” Savell said.

But there are other definitions used in academia as well.

Scott Wolford, a professor of government at the University of Texas at Austin, and Jeff Carter, a professor in the Department of Government and Justice Studies at Appalachian State University, are co-directors of the Correlates of War Project, which provides a “systematic accumulation of scientific knowledge about war” dating back to 1816.

COW defines war as “‘sustained combat’ between belligerents, or what we might call competitive violence used by groups organized for violence against other groups organized for violence,” Wolford and Carter told us via email.

The conflict between the U.S. and Iran meets their definition of “sustained combat,” they said.

“Operationally, though, to enter the COW data as a war (as opposed to lower-level violence) there’s a battle death cutoff of 1000, above which a conflict enters the data as a war,” they said.

Trump attends the dignified transfer of remains of six U.S. soldiers killed in an Iranian drone strike in Kuwait on March 7 at Dover Air Force Base in Delaware. Official White House photo by Daniel Torok.

Seven American troops have been killed in the military conflict so far, and retaliatory Iranian strikes have also killed nearly two dozen others in the Middle East region, according to a March 8 New York Times report. Iran’s U.N. ambassador said on March 6 that more than 1,300 Iranian civilians have been killed in the conflict.

Those figures from Iran have not been verified, however, and Carter noted that COW’s 1,000 threshold “applies to members of the combatants’ armed forces,” not civilians.

If the military conflict leads to 1,000 battle deaths, it would be categorized as a war in the COW database, regardless of what either Iranian or U.S. leaders call it. (Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, did call the conflict a “war,” telling PBS News on March 9, “This is a war imposed on us.”)

“The virtue of those definitions is that they’re independent of what governments *say* about whether or not they’re at war,” Wolford and Carter wrote.

“But that’s distinct from the political-legal question of whether this is a war,” they said. “Declarations of war are pretty rare, though Congressional authorizations for the use of force aren’t, and the fact that this conflict began and continues with neither is probably what’s at issue in the public argument over the definition.”

But experts told us the political classification of the conflict could change over time, if the number of American casualties rose, if ground troops were deployed, or if the military action continues for a protracted amount of time.

“If there was a specific and limited set of armed attacks, of short duration, the Administration could sustain the argument that they are not yet at war,” Johnson said. “However, the scale, extent, and possibly duration of [counter] attacks would take us beyond purely legal definitions.”

In remarks on March 11, Trump referred to the military action in Iran as “a little excursion.”

A reporter asked, “You just said, ‘It is a little excursion,’ and you said, ‘It is a war.’ So which one is it?”

“Well, it’s both,” Trump said. “It’s both.”

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The post Is the U.S. at ‘War’? Politicians Disagree appeared first on FactCheck.org.

Trump’s Claim About the Obama Nuclear Deal and Iran’s Nuclear Development

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President Donald Trump has claimed that the 2015 Iran nuclear deal was “a road to a nuclear weapon” and the country “would be sitting with a massive nuclear weapon three years ago” if he hadn’t withdrawn the U.S. from the deal in 2018 during his first term. The multilateral deal aimed to restrict Iran’s uranium enrichment program, and experts told us that after the U.S. withdrawal, Iran accelerated it instead.

It’s not possible to predict what would have happened if the agreement, called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and negotiated by former President Barack Obama’s administration, had remained in place. In addition to imposing restrictions on Iran’s enrichment of uranium, the deal required international inspections of the country’s nuclear facilities.

On March 3, when speaking about the U.S. airstrikes on Iran that began Feb. 28, Trump said that Obama “made maybe the worst deal I’ve ever seen, because he gave all power in the Middle East to Iran, he went the exact opposite way, and I terminated that. If I didn’t terminate that deal, they would be sitting with a massive nuclear weapon three years ago, which would have been used already on Israel at least, and other countries also. And we wouldn’t be talking about it right now.”

The president went on to say that Obama “was giving them the right to have the path to a nuclear weapon,” saying that deal “expired.”

The next day, Trump said: “If we didn’t terminate the worst deal, one of the worst deals ever made, the Obama nuclear deal … it was a road to a nuclear weapon. Bad things would have happened four years ago, because they would’ve had a weapon four years ago, if I didn’t terminate that deal.”

And during a speech on March 11, Trump said, “But that deal, the Iran nuclear deal gave them the right to have a nuclear weapon as of three years ago.”

But several experts we spoke to disputed Trump’s claim and told us that Iran advanced its nuclear program after Trump’s decision to pull out of the agreement in his first term.

“Iran was able to advance its nuclear programme to the point where it was before the 12 Day War last June not because of the JCPOA, but because President Trump withdrew the United States from the JCPOA,” Laura Rockwood, senior fellow at the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation, told us in an email. Rockwood worked for the International Atomic Energy Agency for 28 years, retiring in 2013.

Similarly, Richard Nephew, an international and public affairs senior research scholar at Columbia University who worked as a special envoy for Iran and for the State Department under the Biden administration, told us, “Trump’s decision to withdraw from the JCPOA in 2018 had a significant accelerating effect on the program.”

“The JCPOA would absolutely not have allowed Iran to develop nuclear weapons,” Nephew said. “First of all, there were prohibitions; then there were transparency requirements; and, then, there were the risks of snapback and punishment” if Iran violated the terms.

Daryl G. Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, a nonpartisan organization that provides analysis on arms control and national security issues, told us for an earlier story that the 2015 nuclear deal “established an array of limits on Iran’s uranium enrichment and uranium stockpiling” and a rigorous monitoring and verification program. After the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the deal, “Iran began to reconstitute its nuclear capabilities, including by deploying large numbers of advanced centrifuges and stockpiling” highly enriched uranium.

As we’ve explained before, the nuclear agreement, which took effect in 2016 and was signed by the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council — China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States — and Germany, restricted Iran’s ability to enrich uranium for 15 years and required monitoring and inspections of Iranian facilities for the same amount of time.

Under the deal, Iran agreed to do away with much of its nuclear program and, in exchange, the signatories lifted sanctions, the Council on Foreign Relations explained.

Trump announced on May 8, 2018, that the U.S. would withdraw from the deal and reinstitute sanctions. About a year later, in July 2019, Iran had exceeded the limits on its stockpile of low-enriched uranium that had been set in the JCPOA, the International Atomic Energy Agency reported at the time. Iran’s foreign minister said the country would begin to enrich uranium beyond the low level allowed under the deal (3.67%), which was the level needed for civilian nuclear power.

“The JCPOA dramatically restricted Iran’s ability to produce fissile material and, in particular, not only placed a cap on the quantity of enriched uranium Iran could stockpile and on the level of enrichment, but required the dismantlement of 2/3 of its centrifuges and limited its ability to produce advanced centrifuges,” Rockwood said. “Iran simply would not have been able to enrich to the point of possessing over 400 kg of 60% enriched uranium had the JCPOA remained in place.”

Rockwood was referring to the amount of 60% enriched uranium that Iran had stockpiled before the June 2025 U.S. bombing of nuclear program sites in the country. To be weapons-grade, the uranium would need to be enriched to 90%, as we’ve explained.

Of course, Iran could have violated the terms of the nuclear deal and pursued a nuclear weapon.

“No single element blocks Iran’s pathway to nuclear weapons, but taken together, the nuclear restrictions and monitoring form a comprehensive system that will put nuclear weapons out of Iran’s reach for at least 15 years,” the nonpartisan Arms Control Association explained in an August 2015 analysis. “Many of the JCPOA provisions also extend beyond 15 years. Monitoring of centrifuge production facilities continues for 20 years, and monitoring of uranium mines and mills continues for 25 years. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors will have enhanced access indefinitely.”

Critics of the JCPOA — including Trump — have argued that the deal didn’t go far enough, and they objected to the lifting of economic sanctions.

“One of the main arguments used against the JCPOA was that it allowed Iran to continue enriching uranium and move closer to nuclear capability while remaining technically in compliance,” the nonpartisan Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation wrote in a June report. “The JCPOA also contained so-called ‘sunset provisions’ on various aspects of the deal such as lifting limits on centrifuges after 10 years or reduced enrichment beyond 3.67% only lasting for 15 years. This led to concerns that the deal would only temporarily delay Iran’s nuclear program while preventing parties from finding a more permanent solution. Additionally, critics worried that lifting sanctions on Iran in return for the JCPOA’s focus on constraining Iran’s nuclear program would diminish the United States’ ability to address other security concerns such as Iran’s missile program or its funding of violent non-state groups in the Middle East.”

In saying that Iran would’ve had a nuclear weapon “three years ago,” Trump may have been referencing one of these provisions, known as “transition day,” which was set to take effect on Oct. 18, 2023, eight years after implementation of the deal. On that day, if Iran had complied with its commitments under the deal, some of the restrictions on Iran’s nuclear and missile programs would have been lifted. However, while U.N. restrictions expired, countries that remained in the JCPOA after the U.S. withdrawal chose to maintain their restrictions, citing Iran’s noncompliance.

We asked the White House about Trump’s remarks, but we didn’t get a response.

While Trump claims that the JCPOA would have brought Iran closer to having a nuclear weapon and his withdrawal stopped that, the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation estimated that the withdrawal sped up the so-called “breakout time,” or the time Iran would need to produce weapons-grade uranium that could then be used for one bomb – if the country chose to do so. The center estimated, as of November 2024, that the breakout time went from two to three months before the deal to 12-plus months during the deal. And then, after the U.S. withdrawal, the breakout time was reduced to just a couple of weeks.

As we’ve explained, it would take more time to actually develop a nuclear weapon. “After this point, once you have the weapons-grade uranium, Iran would then need to manufacture the rest of the weapon. This process would likely take much longer, perhaps months to a year,” Emma Sandifer, program coordinator at the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, told us for an earlier story.

She said that last June’s airstrikes likely lengthened the “breakout time,” but the IAEA hasn’t been able to inspect the damaged nuclear program sites since then.

In 2017, several months before withdrawing from the nuclear deal, Trump had claimed that Iran “has committed multiple violations of the agreement.” But as we wrote at the time, the IAEA said in its multiple reports after the deal went into effect that Iran was abiding by it. Trump himself had twice certified to Congress that Iran had complied with the deal, before claiming there had been violations.

In late September 2017, Gen. Joseph Dunford, then the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told Congress that “Iran is adhering to its JCPOA obligations” and that the agreement “has delayed Iran’s development of nuclear weapons.”

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A Persistent Patient's Story

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The news that the Galleri blood test - which can detect DNA of more than 50 different types of cancer in the blood stream before symptoms otherwise appear - failed to show a 20% reduc

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