911 EMERGENCY: An ambulance in New York City now takes an average of 13 minutes to reach someone in life-threatening distress.

That response time has risen five years straight and is up 41.2% from a decade ago, a city comptroller’s report revealed earlier this month. According to this year’s Mayor’s Management Report, which came out in September, ambulance response times to life-threatening emergencies shot up by almost 16% between fiscal year 2025 and fiscal year 2026 — the sharpest increase this decade.

A core part of the issue is that calling 911 does not necessarily mean an ambulance will be immediately dispatched. Callers are put in dispatch queues. If a higher-priority call comes through, the ambulance might be rerouted. And all of this happens behind the scenes — which means those experiencing medical emergencies have no idea when help will actually arrive.

Council member Joann Ariola, chair of the Fire and Emergency Management Committee, proposed a bill in August that would require the city to send New Yorkers broad notifications when the emergency response system is overloaded.

Now, the Queens Republican is pushing for these notifications to be completely personalized.

“The idea is that I would be able to track my ambulance in real time, just like you’re able to do for your bus, or your train, or your rideshare car,” she told Playbook.

If patients know how far away help is, they can make an informed decision to forgo an ambulance and instead pursue other means of transportation to a hospital, she said. That would also alleviate pressure on the already overloaded EMS system and potentially get callers the care they need faster.

The idea has support from a council member across the political aisle.

“We get live texts about everything under the sun, but for some reason, in our current system, we don’t get alerts about this,” Democratic Council member Harvey Epstein said. “If I’m waiting for an ambulance because my kid broke their leg, and I learn that it’s going to be half an hour, it’s smarter for me to just hop in a cab anyway.”

Ariola said she met with top FDNY officials — including Commissioner Lillian Bonsignore, Chief of Department John Esposito and Chief of EMS Paul Miano — ahead of Tuesday’s hearing to discuss the idea. All of them, she said, appeared more receptive to specific text alerts than to the broad notification system proposed in her initial bill.

Amanda Farinacci, an FDNY spokesperson, said the department is “considering and exploring all options that will help us respond to emergency medical calls quickly and keep New Yorkers informed.”

"We are exploring all our options, this included,” she said, referring to the live text-update model.

Ariola said she’s submitted the new version of the bill and is waiting to hear back from the legislative affairs committee.

The solution proposed by she and Epstein would address the public-facing side of the problem, offering relief to callers in emergency situations.

The root cause of the issue, though, is retaining EMS employees — a challenge officials and union leaders say stems from low pay for a high-stress job.

“This is not fixing the broken system,” Ariola said. “We are in a state of emergency right now. It’s a systemic problem with EMS because they cannot retain their members, because it’s not a career.”

Entry-level pay for emergency medical technicians is less than that of sanitation workers, firefighters, correction officers and police officers. Since 2019, about 4,300 EMTs and paramedics have left their titles, many for better-paying jobs elsewhere in the department. Last fiscal year, 58% of departing EMTs became firefighters.

The union representing emergency medical workers is negotiating a contract that lapsed in 2022, and it’s seeking pay parity with firefighters. But the comptroller’s report found that parity alone would raise EMS salary-related expenses by $184 million a year, a 66% jump.

“The City can reverse this dangerous trend by ensuring members of EMS are treated as equals to members of fire operations, and by providing EMS personnel with pay and benefit parity comparable to their firefighter counterparts,” Local 3621 President Vincent Variale and Local 2507 President Michael Greco said in a joint statement. “These actions would not only treat our EMS workforce respectfully and properly; they would save the lives of New Yorkers in peril.”

Response times to life-threatening emergencies saw the sharpest year-to-year increase of the decade between the last two fiscal years, a timeframe that straddles the Mamdani administration and the administration of former Mayor Eric Adams.

“This is something that each mayor inherited, but the new administration, it is now absolutely their issue,” Ariola said. “I’m hoping this is the administration that finally solves the retention problem. And the only way to solve that problem is to pay EMTs their worth and also recognize them as uniformed workers.”

The mayor’s office declined to comment on Ariola’s new proposal and referred to a comment from the fire department.

“The Department is currently engaged in a challenging period of increasing response times. We know this is unacceptable and we are working tirelessly to reverse this trend,” Farinacci said. “We will continue to take steps to improve response times and keep New Yorkers safe, including improving coordination with hospitals, enhancing efficiency in high-volume areas, and increased operational visibility to help return units to service quickly."  — Molly Reinmann

FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL

A SUBURBAN ALARM: Suburban voters across the country are turning against President Donald Trump, according to a poll that amounts to a major warning sign for the GOP this election season.

The results of the National Suburban Poll by the National Center for Suburban Studies at Hofstra University paint a bleak picture for Trump and his party.

“Numbers that are concerning Republicans throughout the country become even more so when they show up in suburbs, which for years have been the ‘swing’ voting bloc that determines national and many statewide elections,” said Larry Levy, the center’s dean. “When a party’s or candidate’s numbers are weak in the suburbs, as we’ve found in many instances for Republicans, the situation goes from concerning to alarming.”

The survey found 33% of suburban voters approve of the president’s job performance. His approval rating in swing suburban House seats isn’t much better: 35%.

Just over a quarter of suburban voters nationally — 26% — are satisfied with the direction of the country.

Suburban voters by a margin of 50% to 42% prefer Democrats over Republicans in the generic Congressional ballot question. The GOP, though, is in a statistical tie with Democrats in suburban swing seats. In those districts, Democrats lead Republicans 47% to 44%.

Taken together, the numbers highlight the challenge Republicans face this year, especially in deep blue New York, home to several swing House districts in the New York City suburbs.

The most competitive race is in the Hudson Valley, where GOP Rep. Mike Lawler is fending off a challenge from Democratic opponent Cait Conley.

The survey included 1,500 people nationwide and was conducted in late September. It oversampled suburban residents who live in swing House districts. — Nick Reisman

SARATOGA FRESH: To get an idea of how much national headwinds might apply to the New York State Senate, look to Saratoga County.

Plenty of indicators suggest two factors will heavily influence the outcome: Voters are angry at Republicans and willing to oppose well-tenured incumbents.

That could be a double-barreled problem for Sen. Jim Tedisco, who’s running in a district where Donald Trump lost by 8 points two years ago. The Republican is now the dean of the state Legislature by a large margin: Tedisco came to Albany in 1983, the first year of Mario Cuomo’s time as governor. Only four other members who might be in office next year served in 1999.

“Jim Tedisco’s been in office for over 40 years, almost as long as I’ve been alive,” said Sarah Rogerson, Tedisco’s Democratic challenger. “People are ready for some fresh voices.”

Even if current assumptions about the electorate’s mood prove true, Republicans remain optimistic they won’t apply to New York. The GOP believes 2026 will be a repeat of 2022, when a lack of enthusiasm for the top of the ticket meant a good year for Democrats nationwide bypassed the Empire State.

“If there’s going to be a blue wave across the country, it’s probably going to miss New York, and it’s largely because of how deeply unpopular Kathy Hochul is,” Senate Republican Campaign Committee Chair George Borrello said.

Nobody’s predicting Republicans will retake the majority in a chamber where Democrats had a 41-22 edge this year. The main question now is whether Democrats can pull off a two-thirds supermajority of 42 or more members, a feat accomplished in 2020 and 2022 but not 2024.

READ MORE in POLITICO Pro from Bill Mahoney.

FROM CITY HALL

BILL SIGNING TIME: Mayor Zohran Mamdani will sign two bills passed by the City Council that come with significant transit and housing policy ramifications, his office confirmed today.

The first measure Mamdani plans to put his John Hancock on will abolish New York City’s horse carriage industry. The second will give nonprofit groups and local land trusts first dibs on buying distressed residential properties in their communities, with the idea that those regulations will protect affordable housing stock.

Mamdani had already voiced support for both pieces of legislation before the Council passed them yesterday. But his office hadn’t until today confirmed he would sign the bills, as opposed to letting them lapse into law.

Mamdani’s office did not immediately provide a date for when he plans to sign the bills.

The issue of signing bills came to the fore this week when the New York Post noted that Mamdani has only inked one bill since taking office. Ultimately, as long as the mayor doesn’t veto a bill, there’s no practical difference between whether he signs it or lets it lapse, as it becomes law regardless. — Chris Sommerfeldt 

IN OTHER NEWS

— IN THE SCHOOLS: New York City is considering closing a Harlem high school due to underenrollment, the first in what could be a growing number of school mergers and closures amid public school enrollment declines. (Chalkbeat)

— HOCHUL: The governor’s vision for New York is largely shaped by her upbringing in a small Rust Belt city in western New York and her family’s slow climb up the socioeconomic ladder. (New York Times)

— CORNELL 7: Attorney General Letitia James is asking a court to dismiss a request to remove her from the investigation into the alleged sexual assault at Cornell University due to impartiality concerns. (Times Union)

Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here.

Senior Democrats are tempering their expectations about how big of a House majority they might win, as both parties see a tightening battlefield.

The latest rounds of internal polling from both parties from the middle of October show GOP candidates gaining ground in the Midwest and narrowing races in a key Colorado seat and elsewhere, according to six people familiar with the data who were granted anonymity to discuss it. Republicans’ deluge of money also seems to be helping shore up some imperiled Florida seats even as they face serious problems in North Carolina and Texas. The GOP gerrymandered those three states in their favor in the Trump-induced round of redistricting following the 2024 election.

Now, Democrats on Capitol Hill are starting to privately caution some of their bolder colleagues that it seems very possible they don’t hit the 235-seat height of their majority following the 2018 elections, according to one of those people and two others with direct knowledge of the conversations.

“I don’t think anyone ever believed we were going to have 2018 numbers,” one House Democrat said. “I honestly think the results are going to be all over the place. Caution seems smart to me. But, optimistic is also a good place to be.”

That’s a notable change from the tune some Democrats were singing just earlier this month: Brooke Butler, political director for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, had predicted that their majority this cycle could reach 240 seats. “Anywhere between 218 and 240 feels very viable,” she told POLITICO earlier this month in announcing the DCCC’s plans to target new districts deep in GOP territory.

Some Democrats feel their own internal polling is over-indexing their strength in some cases, according to two other operatives working on competitive races, granted anonymity to speak candidly. But the party is still confident they’ll win the majority and are eager to keep Republicans spending to defend once-safe red seats.

Before the all-out GOP panic started in late September and boosted many Democrats’ bullishness, Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries predicted House Democrats would win 220 seats.

“Given the mountain of outside, billionaire-backed cash being dropped in competitive House races across the country and the seemingly never-ending schemes by Republicans to try to rig the midterms — we’ve always known that the majority-making races would come down to the wire,” DCCC spokesperson Viet Shelton said in a statement. “We’re clear-eyed that House Democrats are poised to win the majority, and it will take running flat out until Election Day.”

Still, the tightening in the core House battleground districts that were identified as battlegrounds early on means a slew of those races are currently within the margin of error, or Republicans in some cases are running just a few points behind, according to the six people with knowledge of the internal Democratic and GOP polling. That includes the race for Michigan’s 7th District between GOP Rep. Tom Barrett and Democrat William Lawrence.

Another marquee battleground in Wisconsin’s 3rd District has tightened a few points since last month, as Republicans pour in millions of dollars more in ad spending. Democrat Rebecca Cooke is running 1 percentage point ahead of GOP Rep. Derrick Van Orden in a multi-candidate vote, 47% to 46%, according to an internal Cooke campaign poll from mid-October obtained by POLITICO. "Wisconsin is always close and hard-fought — especially in a district Trump won decisively,” a Cooke campaign aide said. “Our working class message is connecting, but we need the resources to make sure it's heard."

In Iowa, Republicans still feel they’re likely to lose Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks 1st District. But they’re cautiously optimistic about Rep. Zach Nunn in Iowa’s 3rd district and Joe Mitchell in Iowa’s open 2nd District, where President Donald Trump is set to hold a rally on Nov. 1.

“Any Republican in Iowa in a neck and neck race ends up winning on Election Day,” said one GOP operative working on House races, who was granted anonymity to discuss the landscape.

Top GOP staff and officials still believe it’s more likely than not that they lose the House majority, but they’re hopeful they can limit Democrats’ margin.

The new polling is helping them see they might avoid some of the deep hemorrhaging, especially in the Midwest, that they feared in late September and earlier this month. That region has been hit hardest by Trump’s tariff agenda and rising diesel costs resulting from an unpopular Iran war — something the White House has seemed to acknowledge, with Trump promising $8 billion to farmers hurting from high fuel prices.

“Democrats spent months measuring the drapes, and now they’re scrambling to lower expectations before a single race is called,” National Republican Congressional Committee spokesperson Mike Marinella said. “Republicans have been laser-focused since day one and built our operation to win the races that will get us to 218.”

Trump is also personally working to shore up at-risk Republicans in his home state of Florida with a visit Friday to rally GOP voters.

Republicans in the last few days started to pile money into a series of once-safe GOP seats there, including Rep. Anna Paulina Luna’s Gulf Coast seat. Republicans are also racing to save several open seats, despite redrawing the districts in their favor, where the GOP is struggling. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise is in South Florida to boost GOP Rep. Maria Salazar on Friday and campaigned on Thursday for Republican Dan Green in the redrawn seat against Rep. Darren Soto, who should be toast under the GOP gerrymander in most political environments.

Senior Republicans believe the money bomb is starting to help shore up some Florida seats, though they still have more work to do.

South Texas remains one of the worst spots on the map for House Republicans, after the top House GOP super PAC cut off spending for one of their star recruits — Tano Tijerina, who is challenging Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar — to help other imperiled GOP candidates. Some at-risk Republicans in the area, like Rep. Monica De La Cruz, should’ve been safe in a recently redrawn seat.

In North Carolina, Republicans are facing some dire fallout across House seats after the implosion of Republican Michael Whatley’s Senate campaign and top Senate GOP groups cutting off spending in the state. Top House GOP groups and Trump’s political operation have already cut off spending in North Carolina’s open 11th District, where Democrat Jamie Ager is challenging Republican Jennifer Balkcom.

President Donald Trump is asking voters to “pretend” he is on the ballot. That might backfire.

New results from The POLITICO Poll show that Democratic midterm voters are more motivated to oppose the president than Republican voters are to support him. Many Republican voters also aren’t looking for blind loyalty to Trump in the midterms: Half say they’d rather their local candidate aim to win, even if it means speaking out against the president.

It’s not uncommon for voters in the party out of power to be more motivated in a midterm year. But the lopsided findings are an ominous sign for Trump, who has fundamentally reshaped the GOP over the past decade and has once again staked his brand — and political capital — on delivering wins for Republicans in November.

With less than two weeks before the election, the poll suggests Republicans are pragmatic, and care more about preventing a blue wave than standing by Trump. And in a year when voter frustration over high pricesappears poised to play a major role, that distinction could prove consequential.

The poll, conducted by London-based firm PF Global, reveals the extent to which frustration with Trump is driving Democrats: Nearly half of Democratic midterm voters say they will be voting “mainly to oppose President Trump,” compared to just 38% of Republican voters who say they will be voting mainly to show support for Trump.

Instead, a plurality of Republican midterm voters — 48% — say their main motivation when casting a vote is to show support for a local candidate. Only 37% of Democratic voters agree.

“[Trump is] 100% motivating Democrats more than Republicans,” said Doug Heye, a longtime GOP strategist. “That may have been the case regardless, but it’s even more true with words like ‘diesel’ and ‘Iran’ now a part of everyday political discussion.”

Half of Republicans think candidates have a better chance of winning if they align themselves with Trump rather than breaking from him, compared to just 30% who believe candidates would have a better chance of winning if they break away.

But half of Republicans also accept their candidates speaking out against the president if that’s what they need to do to win their own election. That’s compared with 37% who say candidates should remain loyal to the president and support his agenda, even if it means risking a loss.

On top of that, majorities of Republican voters say Trump himself should give candidates some room to break with him on specific policy issues to win elections.

If it helps GOP candidates’ chances of winning, they said, the president should allow for disagreement on the speed of AI development, the cost of living, and whether the war in Iran was a good decision. That holds true for pluralities or even majorities of Trump 2024 voters who self-identify as part of the “MAGA” movement across each policy area, suggesting that even his most loyal voters want the president to let candidates distance themselves if it can help them win.

“President Trump is the unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator for the Republican Party, and he is committed to maintaining Republican majorities in Congress,” said White House spokesperson Davis Ingle.

RNC spokesperson Natalie Baldassarre said "POLITICO didn't need to conduct a poll to know that Democrats are motivated by their hatred for President Trump and Republicans.” She added that the GOP is "running on actual accomplishments like cutting taxes and securing the border," while saying Democrats have made "investigations, obstruction, and impeachment" their campaign platform.

Still, the tension is playing out in real time as Republican candidates locked in competitive races walk a tightrope between maintaining Trump’s support — and that of his MAGA base — without alienating critical moderate and independent voters. They’re especially under pressure as Trump hits the campaign trail in battlegrounds and red states, with several candidates having to quietly make calculations whether it will hurt them politically to appear next to him.

“I think Republicans ... are stuck choosing which finger to cut off,” said a national GOP operative, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the midterm landscape. "There is no good answer."

In Iowa, where voter frustration over some of Trump’s marquee policies, including tariffs and rising costs stemming from the Iran war, has mounted, Republican candidates have sought to create some distance from the president. Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson, the party’s Senate nominee, has said the war needs to be “brought to a successful and immediate end.” She also skipped a rally Vice President JD Vance held in the state last month.

Several other GOP candidates have also skipped Trump rallies in their home states, and many have grown increasingly wary of mentioning Trump in ads, including in red states that over the last few months have suddenly started to look competitive. In battleground Georgia, GOP gubernatorial nominee Rick Jackson has carefully navigated his relationship with Trump, avoiding public breaks with the president on policy but still limiting direct references to him in campaign ads and on the debate stage.

“I don’t know that Trump coming [to Georgia] helps Republicans more so than it excites Democrats, especially in a wave election year,” said Jason Shepherd, a former Cobb County GOP chair who is supporting Jackson.

That leaves Republican candidates in a tricky position: Their voters are willing to accept breaking from Trump if victory is on the line, but voters — and candidates — won’t know what will cost them their race until it's too late.

"There's no reason to gratuitously attack the White House and make an enemy,” the national GOP operative said. “But the end game here is to get reelected, and if they have to get reelected, but the president's annoyed at them for a period of time, they'll get over it.”

While Republican candidates balance loyalty to Trump with the possibility of breaking away on certain issues, Democratic midterm voters remain highly motivated to vote against Trump’s agenda.

Even Trump’s endorsement of a Republican candidate seems to influence Democrats more than Republicans: Roughly 70% of Democratic midterm voters say his endorsement would make them less likely to support a candidate, compared to 55% of Republican midterm voters who say the endorsement would make them more likely to support a candidate.

“The midterm elections are about anger management and failed expectations,” said North Carolina based GOP strategist Paul Shumaker. “A lot of Republicans and swing voters feel like their expectations have not been met in helping address their economic concerns.”

Alec Hernández and Alisa Vasquez contributed to this story.

Every week political cartoonists throughout the country and across the political spectrum apply their ink-stained skills to capture the foibles, memes, hypocrisies and other head-slapping events in the world of politics. The fruits of these labors are hundreds of cartoons that entertain and enrage readers of all political stripes. Here's an offering of the best of this week's crop, picked fresh off the Toonosphere. Edited by Matt Wuerker.

President Donald Trump and his allies are mounting a last-minute mission to shore up his longtime personal friend in a battleground Arizona district.

GOP groups have spent more than $22 million to boost Jay Feely against Democrat Amish Shah, with much of that spending coming in the final weeks of the race. The president has known Feely for decades as a friend and golf partner, and he sees the former Arizona Cardinals kicker as a formidable candidate, according to two Trump officials familiar with their relationship, who were granted anonymity to share details about it.

The ferocious support for Feely appears to mark a rare instance of personal friendship and loyalty shaping political strategy in the close of the midterm campaign — especially after Trump personally intervened to clear a pathway for Feely to clinch the nomination. Trump and his allies have largely taken an unsentimental approach to political spending, including backing away from high-profile Senate races in Georgia and North Carolina where Trump loyalists are on the ballot.

Trump, in public and private, maneuvered other Republicans out of the way so Feely could switch races and defend one of the premier battleground districts in the country, according to the two Trump officials.

Still, Feely has been forced to navigate Trump’s deep unpopularity on the campaign trail.

Shah has been working to tie Feely to Trump in a flurry of ads, in the district where the president has an approval rating around negative 13 points, according to Democratic internal polling viewed by POLITICO.

Feely, a star GOP recruit, also attended a meeting with Speaker Mike Johnson and tech billionaire Elon Musk in Texas this August as top Republicans worked to secure Musk’s help in defending the House GOP majority alongside the Senate, according to two people with direct knowledge of the meeting, granted anonymity to share private details.

Musk has donated $20 million to the top House GOP super PAC, though he’s focused much of his attention this midterms season on the Texas Senate race.

The Trump team appears to be taking a pragmatic view of Feely’s campaign, giving him some room to distance himself from the White House — even if that means avoiding the president’s rallies and breaking with him on other matters, according to the two Trump officials and two other people with direct knowledge of the matter who were granted anonymity to speak candidly.

Feely posted on social media this week: “I will stand up to anyone including the president if it is not in the best interest of this district and this state.” He and another battleground Arizona Republican, Rep. Juan Ciscomani, didn’t attend a rally Trump held in their state Oct. 14.

Brian Seitchik, Feely’s general consultant and a former 2016 and 2020 Trump campaign staffer, would only say Feely "regrettably could not attend” the event.

Feely’s run is a rare case this cycle where the Republican candidate is a well-known figure in his own right — and who has been personal friends with Trump for decades. He’s running in a wealthy GOP-held district that includes Scottsdale and part of the Phoenix suburbs that the president only narrowly won in 2024 and Democrats are eager to flip. Trump officials are keenly aware if they lose the seat, Democrats could hold it for several elections to come.

“Both parties know how important the seat is,” Feely told POLITICO at the GOP midterm convention in Dallas this September. “It'll be one of three to five seats in the country that'll determine who wins the House,” he said, predicting it would “probably be the most expensive race in the country.”

“I'm honored to have a relationship with President Trump for the last two decades and to have his support at the same time,” Feely added at the time.

Internal polling on both sides show Feely locked in a tossup race against Shah, who was a physician with the New York Jets during Feely’s tenure on that team.

Feely noted the importance of winning over independent voters in the district. That’s an even harder task now given the growing unpopularity of the war in Iran and high fuel prices hitting voters.

The White House did not respond to a request for comment.

“In a race that’s going to come down to potentially hundreds of votes, Jay is doing the hard work required to win this battleground seat,” Seitchik, Feely’s general consultant, said.

Trump and Feely, who went on to have a career in broadcasting, have known each other for several decades. They’ve golfed together in recent years: Feely posted a photo of himself with Trump in August of 2020 after a round of golf with the president at his Bedminster, New Jersey, club. “What an epic day!!” he wrote.

Trump-aligned super PACs have poured north of $9 million into the race to boost Feely on the airwaves against Shah. The top House GOP super PAC, Congressional Leadership Fund, is highly focused on defending the seat and has also dropped nearly $7 million on the race. And the National Republican Congressional Campaign has spent $2.6 million on coordinated ad buys with Feely’s campaign.

Feely was originally running in the redder 5th District to replace Andy Biggs, who is now competing to be the state’s next governor. But Trump urged Feely to switch races to the battleground 1st District after retiring GOP Rep. David Schweikert announced he would also run for governor.

Trump’s encouragement helped draw Feely into a GOP primary fight with Gina Swoboda, a longtime Trump ally and former state party chair. The president initially expressed support for both Feely and Swoboda, but soon he posted only in support of his personal friend.

“I know Jay well, and he is a TOTAL WINNER, on and off the field!” Trump wrote.

Can Angie Nixon prove Democrats can win in Florida?

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Democrats’ top Senate-focused super PAC will report raising $354 million through Oct. 14 — including roughly $88 million in the first two weeks of the month— as Democrats race to seize control of the upper chamber in the election’s closing weeks.

Senate Majority PAC shared their fundraising totals, which are higher than any previous cycle, with POLITICO ahead of a Federal Election Commission deadline later Thursday. The super PAC had $32.7 million in the bank as of Oct. 14.

“This is already the strongest cycle in Senate Majority PAC’s history, and it’s arriving exactly when it counts,” SMP spokesperson Lauren French said in a statement. “We’re on the air across the battleground through Election Day, and every dollar is going toward beating price-gouging Republicans and winning back the Senate.”

That’s more than the $306 million SMP raised in the 2024 campaign cycle, according to FEC filings, its previous high.

SMP is still being outraised by the Senate Leadership Fund, the GOP’s top Senate super PAC, in large part thanks to billionaire Elon Musk and other Republican megadonors. Musk gave $158 million to SLF in the third quarter, according to its most recent FEC report, and the super PAC in turn sent that money to Texas’ Senate race in order to boost the scandal-plagued GOP nominee Ken Paxton.

As of Sept. 30, SLF had raised more than $423 million for the cycle.

Democrats have been able to offset much of Republicans’ super PAC cash advantage on the airwaves because of stronger candidate fundraising.

But Republicans still have the advantage of a favorable map — and more outside money — as they hope to maintain control of at least one chamber of Congress next month.

GOODBYE HORSES: New York City isn’t horsing around anymore.

The City Council voted overwhelmingly today to abolish the Big Apple’s horse carriage industry, handing a historic win to animal rights activists who’ve pushed to end the tourist attraction for decades.

The vote doesn’t mean the industry sunsets overnight, though. The bill enacting the ban — which passed the Council with 40 yays, 7 nays and 2 abstentions — allows the roughly 200 carriage drivers who shuttle tourists around Central Park to continue operating until June 2028, when the industry will be reined into a legal halt officially.

Council Speaker Julie Menin, who started making the legislation’s passage a priority over the summer, told reporters before the vote that the carriage horse-related June death of Romanch Mahajan, an 18-year-old Indian tourist, was the last straw. But she also cited a long record of horses dying in the streets as part of the reason for the bill finally crossing the finish line.

“This has been a long time coming,” she said.

Mayor Zohran Mamdani — who initially withheld support for the measure over labor protection concerns — got behind it earlier this month, sealing the deal for it to become law. He hasn’t yet set a date for signing the bill.

Mamdani came on board after the Council modified the bill to give drivers pathways into other lines of work, and the phase-out period is key in that pursuit.

Under the bill, the city must create a workforce transition program under which drivers would, between now and 2028, receive career counseling as well as referrals to employment opportunities in both public and private sectors, including with the Metropolitan Transportation Authority and hospitality and tourism outfits. The bill would also prohibit drivers from sending their horses to slaughter or using them for carriage duties in another city where it’s allowed.

Horse carriage drivers and their supporters remain furious.

The Transport Workers Union, which advocates for carriage drivers, announced yesterday that it will file a lawsuit to block the ban, arguing it violates federal and state laws. The union is especially incensed that the bill doesn’t require the city to pay out drivers for the value of their carriage licenses — an omission lawyers for the TWU say flies in the face of the Fifth Amendment’s prohibition on government usurping private property without compensation.

Just as the Council was getting ready to vote, carriage supporters received backing from a somewhat unexpected source: President Donald Trump.

“So sad to see the beloved Central Park Horse-drawn Carriage Industry ending after over a Century, based largely on one tragic accident,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post, referring to Mahajan. “When there is a car accident in the area, of which there are many, they don’t stop cars from entering the Park. So why would they stop the Carriages? It was a Great Tradition.”

Also before today’s vote, dozens of TWU reps and carriage drivers gathered outside City Hall to blast the Council for moving forward with the legislation. One of them brought along a ziplock bag of equine feces with a handwritten label on it reading: “This is horse sh*t.”

Christina Hansen, who’s been driving carriages for more than a decade, said she feels “disrespected” by the fact that the bill doesn’t guarantee she and her colleagues will be compensated for their licenses, which are worth hundreds of thousands of dollars.

“There are people who are owed money on medallions, who have planned families, had children, bought houses, taken out loans,” Hansen said. “What’s going to happen to them?”

Fellow carriage driver Danielle Slot, who voted for Mamdani in last year’s mayoral election, told Playbook she feels betrayed by his decision to back the bill without a provision mandating medallion reimbursement.

“You say you’re going after billionaires, but you’re really going after the underdogs,” Slot said. “These guys are hardworking, every single medallion is its own independent business, and many are immigrant owned. I expected better from Mamdani than to be a puppet.”

When asked why the bill only requires the city to “consider” medallion compensation as opposed to requiring it, Menin pointed a finger at the mayor. “To be clear, that was language that, you know, was worked out with the administration,” she told reporters at City Hall.

Dora Pekec, a spokesperson for the mayor, did not dispute Menin’s account, but said the administration is “in discussions” about compensation for medallion owners.

Mayors and Council speakers have tried to outlaw the industry since at least 2007. Momentum has built for a ban following tragic incidents in which horses have died or been severely injured in and around Central Park.

But until now, those efforts have fizzled, in part because of political pressure from the Transport Workers Union.

Carriage industry supporters argue that it can be reformed to ensure better safety standards without outlawing it outright. Council member Jim Gennaro, who introduced a bill that would do just that, said he believes Menin is at least partially politically motivated, pointing to the influence of NYCLASS, one of the main animal rights groups behind the push for a ban.

“NYCLASS does have the ability to turn winners and losers in mayoral elections and in borough elections, and I don’t think that fact has been lost on the speaker,” he said before voting against the bill. NYCLASS notably tanked former Council Speaker Christine Quinn’s 2013 mayoral bid by spending heavily against her because of her reluctance to support a carriage ban at the time.

Before the bill passed this afternoon, Gennaro tried to force through an amendment that would’ve delayed the phase-out deadline for the carriage industry until 2030, but it was rejected.

On the other side of the bitter debate, supporters of the bill gathered for a rally in City Hall Park before the vote. Among them were members of Mahajan’s family, who have been fighting for the legislation since his death.

“True justice means recognizing that these gentle, majestic horses do not belong on the congested asphalt,” Gaurav Mahajan, Romanch’s uncle, said. “By granting them the peaceful, green pastures they so deeply deserve, we fulfill Romanch’s purpose.” — Molly Reinmann and Chris Sommerfeldt 

From the Capitol

RAILING AGAINST ALBANY: As Planet Albany denizens may have noticed, the Office of General Services this week began installing hand railings down the middle of several staircases near the state Senate chamber.

More railings are planned for the Assembly chamber-side stairs too. The project costs some $700,000, per WNYC’s Jon Campbell — further evidence that the most expensive government building construction project of the 19th century is never really done.

Aside from the cost, it’s an aesthetic change to a building teeming with history and one that is rarely altered.

Historian and former state Assemblymember Jack McEneny is taking the latest addition to the New York state Capitol in stride.

“I always thought it was only a matter of time that somebody would decide to do something,” he said in an interview when asked about the railings.

McEneny is an expert on the building and has given guided tours. He noted the staircases were not built with safety in mind.

“It was inevitable,” he said of adding the railings. “There’s a number of things that we did back two or three generations before that we wouldn’t do today.”

The stone staircases in the Capitol are indeed steep and very hard. (Fifteen years ago, your Playbook writer landed on his face while sprinting from the second to the third floor, necessitating an emergency dental intervention.)

The building, of course, has been altered over the years to fit the needs of people who work in it. That includes the installation of a small, hideaway elevator, which was used by a wheelchair-bound Franklin Roosevelt when he was governor.

“We require more things than we did at the time of its opening,” McEneny said. “We also have more attorneys who will sue.” — Nick Reisman 

FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL

BLAKEMAN GROUP GETS $2M: The main super PAC supporting Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman has received $2 million from a dark money group created to back Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential bid.

Securing American Greatness made the donation Tuesday to Strong and Safe New York, according to a filing submitted to the state Board of Elections. That group was formed by longtime Trump ally Taylor Budowich.

The pro-Blakeman group has now raised $10.3 million since July. That makes it the largest single independent expenditure group so far this election cycle, though a longer roster of outside spenders boosting Gov. Kathy Hochul means she’s still the beneficiary of more super PAC money. — Bill Mahoney

BROOKLYN BATTLE: The New York State Court of Appeals declined to weigh in Thursday on the long-running legal battle between factions of Brooklyn Democrats looking to lead the county party.

State Assemblymember Rodneyse Bichotte Hermelyn, the former chair of the party, appealed a lower court’s decision that an August vote to change the makeup of the organization’s executive committee was invalid. The lower court’s ruling remains in effect after the appeals court decided not to take it up.

The issue of if state Assemblymember Nikki Lucas, Bichotte Hermelyn’s successor of choice, was properly elected is still playing out in the courts. — Madison Fernandez 

GOV AND MAYOR: Hochul’s campaign today released a video co-starring Mamdani as they prepare to hit the trail together for her reelection.

The video highlighted their shared push for expanding child care, visiting a family that benefits from the service.

POLITICO first reported this morning that the governor and mayor will make two appearances together in the coming days with events on Friday and Sunday in Brooklyn. — Nick Reisman

FROM CITY HALL

MAM LEANS ON MENIN: Mamdani put public pressure on Menin today by showing up to a rally calling for the passage of labor legislation that she hasn’t thrown her weight behind yet — in part because of legal concerns.

The Delivery Protection Act, which was introduced by democratic socialist Council member Tiffany Cabán, would require Amazon and other retail giants to hire their own delivery workers. Currently, retailers can subcontract delivery employees via third party entities — a system that supporters of Cabán’s bill argue hampers workers’ ability to unionize and allows companies like Amazon to skirt accountability for labor violations.

Thirty-four of the Council’s 51 members have signed on as co-sponsors of Cabán’s bill, giving it a veto-proof majority of support, and a hearing was held on it in April. But Menin hasn’t scheduled a vote on the measure or offered support for it, even though she was a co-sponsor of a version of the legislation last year before becoming speaker.

Against that backdrop, Mamdani appeared on the steps of City Hall this morning with Cabán and other backers of the bill. In prepared remarks, he didn’t call out Menin by name, but blasted Amazon for pumping millions of dollars into lobbying against the bill.

“Corporations like Amazon operate on a model of exploitation, and they are spending millions of dollars to convince New Yorkers otherwise,” he said. “But it will not work because we are here together today to make clear that we are going to pass the Delivery Protection Act.”

By contrast, International Brotherhood of Teamsters General President Sean O’Brien, whose union represents Amazon workers, took direct aim at Menin, saying she must call a vote on the bill immediately. “Now is the time to get off your ass,” said O’Brien, who met privately with Mamdani before the rally.

When asked later in the day why she isn’t immediately moving forward with the bill, Menin cited concerns she said need to be worked out regarding potential job losses that could come from barring Amazon from relying on third party contractors. But she also said Mamdani’s own Law Department had reached out to the Council with “legal concerns” with the bill that needed to be resolved before a vote.

Menin didn’t elaborate on the legal issues. But a person with knowledge of the conversations between the Council and the Law Department, who was granted anonymity to discuss the ongoing talks, told Playbook one of the concerns is centered around ensuring the bill satisfies the high legal standard required for the city to mandate direct hiring in the private sector.

A Mamdani spokesperson didn’t immediately return a request for comment on the legal concerns.

Amazon spokesperson Steve Kelly pushed back against the criticism from Mamdani and O’Brien, saying the reliance on third parties “works because local entrepreneurs — people rooted in their communities — deliver a better experience.”

“And this model isn't unusual — it's how businesses and governments operate every day,” Kelly said. “New York City routinely contracts with outside companies to build its infrastructure, run its school buses, and deliver social services. This legislation would single out one industry for restrictions the city doesn't even apply to its own operations.”

It’s a bit unusual for Mamdani to put the speaker on public notice like this over Council legislation. So far in his mayoral term, he hasn’t leaned heavily into legislative battles in the chamber over bills that are still under consideration. — Chris Sommerfeldt 

IN OTHER NEWS

— DOUBLE AGENT: A campaign website for Thomas Kenny, an upstate Assembly candidate running on the Working Families Party ballot line, was created by an aide for Kenny’s ostensible opponent, Republican Allen Caruso. (New York Focus)

— ICE: Hochul’s office is pushing back against the detention of a state employee by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. (Times Union)

— BUS FARE: The MTA is temporarily shutting down its bus fair enforcement teams following an altercation between a Brooklyn public school dean and fare inspectors. (Gothamist)  

Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here.

With less than two weeks until Election Day, most statewide debates have come and gone. Democrats tried to paint their Republican opponents into corners over loyalty to President Donald Trump, and Republicans tried to stake out nuanced positions on the Iran war and data centers.

Here’s what we learned from the more than two dozen statewide candidate debates that occurred — and from those that didn’t.

Republicans walk a fine line with an unpopular Trump

In debate after debate, Democrats tried to tie their opponents to the unpopular president. Republicans weren’t always willing to let them.

Several candidates — especially in blue states — were willing to break with the president. In New Hampshire, GOP former Sen. John Sununu said he’s “never met President Trump” and emphasized he’s “never hesitated to stand up to my party or the president when they're wrong,” specifically criticizing Trump’s policies on trade, Iran and Ukraine. In Minnesota, Republican Senate nominee Michelle Tafoya said she disagreed with Trump’s tariff policy and immigration enforcement, and when asked if she would appear onstage with Trump, she demurred. “I am talking to Minnesotans. Theirs is the only endorsement that I care about,” she said.

In Maine, GOP Sen. Susan Collins emphasized that she has voted against the president more than 100 times this year, and criticized his approach on Iran. Bobby Charles, the GOP nominee for governor and a former official in President George W. Bush’s State Department during the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, said he disagreed with Trump’s “extended engagement” in Iran because “I know what it means to get stuck in a place.”

Some Republicans became frustrated by their opponents' efforts to tie them to the president. “He wants to make this about Donald Trump,” said former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) “The bingo game ought to be, how many times can he put the word ‘Trump’ in any answer that he has given in the last, whatever, 30 minutes? It’s ridiculous.”

But in some redder states, candidates were more willing to hug the president — recognizing support from his base will be critical to win.

“We need the Trump voters to come out,” Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kansas) said in a debate Wednesday. “Just like with my wife, I can disagree with her. Now, my wife is always right, and President Trump is not always right. But I do think that it's great that I have a relationship that I can pick up the phone and discuss with him the pros and cons of what he's contemplating.”

It’s the economy, stupid

Democrats hammered Republicans on affordability issues, blaming Trump’s tariff policy and Iran for spiking prices. In response, a few conceded some Trump policies were hurting them — while others tried to blame the last president.

“That Bidenomics, that Green New Deal that my opponent voted for, that’s where all this inflation came from,” said Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.) in a Senate debate in early October.

The other Collins, Susan, went the opposite way in blue-leaning Maine. “The bottom line is Troy and I both would have voted against the Canadian tariffs,” she said in an October 13 debate, after saying the Iran war was “not well thought out.”

Rep. Ashley Hinson, the GOP nominee for Senate in Iowa, said she would pause the gasoline tax before acknowledging the effect of the war: "I trust in our U.S. military, the greatest fighting force in the world, to bring this to a close as quickly as possible, because I know people are being squeezed,” she said.

Democrats largely sang the same tune on Trump’s policies.

“These tariffs are crushing our state, and we'll repeal those tariffs,” said Sen. John Ossoff (D-Ga.).

“The tariffs and the war in Iran has hurt Iowa more than any other state,” said state Rep. Josh Turek (D-Iowa).

“If you appreciate having record diesel fuel prices … then I'd say vote for Roger Marshall,” said Adam Hamilton, the Democratic nominee running for Senate in Kansas. “If you want change, then I'd like to ask you to vote for me.”

Everyone hates data centers

Republicans and Democrats showed a remarkable similarity in their distaste for data centers even as their specific policy prescriptions diverged — a sign of the issue’s rapid ascent as a bipartisan bogeyman, even as Trump reiterates his support for them.

Candidates from both parties called for local control. “Look, if you don't want a data center, I will stand up and defend it and make sure you don't get it,” said Rick Jackson, a Republican billionaire businessman running for Georgia governor. “Local communities know best,” said Hinson, the Iowa Republican.

In Maine, both Senate candidates said guardrails should be installed to prevent the data centers from raising utility rates for local residents. In Iowa, both gubernatorial candidates — Democrat Rob Sand and Republican Zach Lahn — supported ending tax breaks for data center developers. In New Hampshire, both Senate candidates agreed with GOP Gov. Kelly Ayotte’s push for a statewide moratorium.

“At the end of the day, it's up to our governor, our local leaders, to make decisions about any big infrastructure, transmission, power plants, new factories, and data centers should be treated just the same,” Sununu said.

Gaffe gamechangers

Debates can do candidates more harm than good, and some candidates had some cringey moments.

In Alaska, Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola appeared to be reading from a notecard throughout a recent debate, giving her opponent, GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan, a chance to pounce. "We weren't supposed to get these questions beforehand, were we?" he asked the moderator.

“You can’t cue-card your way through the Senate,” Sullivan later wrote on social media.

Sullivan had his own moment a few weeks earlier when he peeked at Peltola’s answer during a lightning-round question, prompting laughter from the audience. “Happy to help, Dan,” Peltola wrote on social media.

In Kansas, Marshall faced loud chats of “you don’t live here” during a debate at the state fair, while speaking about his residence in Kansas and his home in Florida.

In Maine, Jackson said Collins should “shut up” after a protester interrupted the debate and Collins claimed the demonstrator was “obviously one of Troy's supporters."

"Oh, shut up,” Jackson said. “I don't even know that kid." Collins has pounced on the moment to try to paint Jackson as a sexist hothead; Jackson later said he did not regret his outburst.

In Iowa, Hinson responded to a question about ensuring the solvency of Social Security by slamming young people’s saving habits. “We also need to be talking about millennials saving money,” she said. “Millennials are the worst group of savers in the country right now and have the least amount of savings.”

The debates that didn’t happen

Fear of gaffes may have cost voters a chance to see their candidates square off, as the longstanding political tradition of campaign debates took another hit this cycle.

In Senate battlegrounds across the country, nominees in both parties outright refused to join their opponents onstage or carefully ducked debates.

In Texas, Attorney General Ken Paxton rebuffed invitation after invitation (including one from Fox News), even after Trump urged him to get onstage. In Ohio, the Senate candidates still haven’t reached an agreement to debate. In North Carolina, there is no debate scheduled between the major-party Senate candidates for the first time in nearly 30 years.

There doesn’t seem to be a partisan division over who will and won’t debate. Democratic Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs and Ohio Democratic nominee Amy Acton refused to debate their opponents. So did GOP Gov. Greg Abbott of Texas and Sen. Tommy Tuberville of Alabama, who have rebuffed invitations to debate.

“There’s so much difference between us, I mean, there’s no reason to get up there and argue about differences of opinion,” Tuberville, running for Alabama governor against Democratic former Sen. Doug Jones, told reporters in August.

Andrew Howard, Jason Beeferman, Lisa Kashinsky, Aaron Pellish, Alec Hernandez, Erin Doherty and Jessica Piper contributed reporting.

A new company whose polls had influenced campaign decisions and helped shape the midterms narrative admitted that it was faking its polling data on Tuesday night, setting off a firestorm in the electionsphere.

Wedgewood Polls, facing an imminent publication of an investigation from FiftyPlusOne showing it was fabricating its numbers, declared late Tuesday night that it had been an “experimental project” to show how an “entirely fabricated polling firm” could sway public opinion while painting themselves as the good guys. They’d left an impact and been included by multiple credible polling aggregators including The New York Times — and mentioned twice in POLITICO's Morning Score polling roundup.

Speculation is flying about what, exactly, Wedgewood was trying to achieve, and there’s still little public information about the defunct company that had crowdfunded thousands of dollars for its fake data. Was it an effort to boost progressives Democrats in primaries? If so, were progressives or Republicans really behind it? Was it being used to game betting markets? Were top operatives using the bogus data to make spending decisions? Were aggregation accounts too quick to jump on posting the data?

An email to the account listed on Wedgewood’s X account bounced back, and previous PDFs of polls that were tied to the account are no longer available online.

Regardless of what Wedgewood said it was trying to achieve (they remain adamant the project “was never intended to sway an election or permanently mislead the public”) — pollsters, operatives and candidates alike said there were real world implications for posting fake data online.

Mallory McMorrow, the unsuccessful Michigan Democratic Senate candidate who dropped out before her primary, said a fake Wedgewood poll that showed her crashing to single-digit support against Abdul El-Sayed and Rep. Haley Stevens “dried up” donations, “devastated” volunteers and led to numerous calls to exit the race.

“It killed us,” McMorrow wrote on X. “These were some of the absolute worst days on the campaign. Especially for my team. There are no words to explain the morale blow, and nothing I could do or say to my team to fix it.”

Jennifer Holdsworth, a Democratic operative who ran a super PAC supporting McMorrow, said the Wedgewood poll “was used by several donors to pull back funding at a time we were being outspent by $80 million.”

The account also posted a poll showing democratic socialist Francesca Hong leading in the Wisconsin gubernatorial primary, when there was scant public polling, something that contributed to the narrative she was ahead before the election (which she lost).

They also posted a poll showing the Mississippi Senate race within reach, just before Democrats plowed money into the state. Scott Colom, the Democrat running for the seat, blasted the poll to his press list as proof there was “massive momentum” behind him.

That led election watchers to argue that Wedgewood’s data was being used to make spending decisions in top outside groups, which elicited a response from Democrats’ main Senate super PAC.

“Absolutely not. We don’t make spending or strategic decisions based on external polling,” Lauren French, a spokesperson for Senate Majority PAC, said on X.

In its investigation, FiftyPlusOne said it had included Wedgewood in its aggregator because the firm was founded by people who had worked in the polling industry previously.

There’s also been broad finger-pointing at the aggregator X accounts that post polls frequently — and sometimes without verifying their accuracy.

“You posted our polls multiple times. If you suspected it was fake, why did you post our results?” Wedgewood’s account shot back after Polling USA wrote that “my suspicions about Wedgewood were correct.”

The whole ordeal illuminates just how big a problem polling could be in 2028, where both parties will have presidential primaries and polling can shift the narrative on a dime.

“What I’m concerned about is essentially information pollution, things that are either intended to skew prediction markets or just straight misinformation flying around,” Charlotte Swasey, a pollster for the Democratic group Searchlight, told POLITICO Magazine recently. “It would be really difficult, especially in a primary, to tell people that what they’re seeing about their preferred candidate isn’t real.”

A version of this article first appeared in POLITICO Pro’s Morning Score. Want to receive the newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro. You’ll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day’s biggest stories.

America’s Heartland sows doubt in the GOP

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INTIFADA FLARE UP: One of New York City’s most prestigious public high schools is facing backlash because a school-based socialist youth group co-signed a social media post declaring “Intifada Until Victory!”

The Young Democratic Socialists of America chapter of Stuyvesant High School — along with YDSA chapters at Hunter College, the New School, City College and Lehman College — all signed onto an Oct. 8 Instagram post that accused the Democratic Socialists of America’s New York City chapter of silencing student activists who wanted to protest Mayor Zohran Mamdani over Israel.

The groups accused the democratic socialist mayor of betraying the Palestinian cause and blasted his decision to keep NYPD Commissioner Jessica Tisch in her position, referring to her as a “Zionist billionaire.”

The term intifada — which refers to violent uprisings against Jews in Israel — is viewed by many Jews as a call to violence against them.

Moshe Spern, president of United Jewish Teachers — an advocacy group representing Jewish teachers and students across the city — is demanding the posts be removed immediately and that the YDSA group provide a public apology to the school community.

“NYC public schools have seen hundreds of antisemitic and anti-Israel incidents since October 7, 2023,” he wrote in an email yesterday to Stuyvesant Principal Seung Yu and New York City Schools Chancellor Kamar Samuels. “When a school-recognized club amplifies this rhetoric, it risks contributing to a hostile environment.”

In the missive, Spern invoked Title VI — the federal law that bans discrimination based on race, shared ancestry and national origin — and demanded a review of the YDSA chapter’s charter, faculty adviser and recent activities for compliance.

Spern also cited a chancellor’s regulation that states that student clubs operate under the principal’s supervision and must remain consistent with the school’s educational goals.

Yu did not respond to requests for comment. Mamdani’s Department of Education also did not respond to Playbook.

Spern told Playbook today that he has yet to receive a response from Yu.

“To flat out ignore it is extremely irresponsible,” he said.

The NYC-DSA defended the organization.

“We support the right to organize,” NYC-DSA co-Chair Gustavo Gordillo said in a statement. “NYC-DSA did not organize or endorse this particular rally, but red scare tactics have never been effective tools for engaging with student movements.”

The social media uproar is the latest flashpoint in ongoing tensions in the city over Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel and the war that followed.

Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel, was reluctant to condemn the term “globalize the intifada” on the campaign trail last year before finally saying he will not use the term. He also drew bipartisan backlash over his statement marking the third anniversary of the attack. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu labeled the mayor an antisemite, which Mamdani has denied.

Mamdani, though, has also simultaneously faced backlash from pro-Palestinian activists who accused him of betraying the Palestinian cause by retaining Tisch, who’s Jewish and a self-described Zionist. Those critics have also criticized him for not doing enough to prevent local synagogues from holding events that promote land sales in Israel, some of them in the occupied West Bank. — Madina Touré

From the Capitol

Q’S LATEST: Gov. Kathy Hochul has a 55-41 lead over Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman, a Quinnipiac University poll released this afternoon found.

That 14-point advantage is narrower than the 19-point lead Quinnipiac gave Hochul last month. But it’s more in line with the numbers from other pollsters: Marist found Hochul up by 11 two weeks ago, Emerson had Hochul up 12 in early October, and Siena measured her lead at 9 points last month.

Despite Hochul’s lead, the Q Poll concluded Blakeman has an enthusiasm advantage. A total of 65% of his backers were “very enthusiastic” to support him, while only 33% of Hochul’s supporters said the same. — Bill Mahoney

FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL

LANDER DETAINED: Democratic congressional candidate Brad Lander was detained today by Israeli security officials while harvesting olives in the West Bank.

Lander, a self-described liberal Zionist and critic of Israel, said he went to the West Bank as part of the “Protect the Harvest” coalition to support Palestinians gathering crops.

Rabbi Jill Jacobs, CEO of T’ruah, a progressive rabbinical organization, said she was also detained Wednesday, along with “approximately 80 American, Israeli, and international volunteers providing a protective presence for Palestinian farmers.” According to a press release from T’ruah, there were “approximately two hours of peaceful harvesting” until “Israeli forces declared the area a closed military zone” and detained them to transport them to a police station, despite the volunteers agreeing to leave.

An Israeli military official told POLITICO that officers from the Israel Defense Forces and Border Police, along with local police, arrived at the scene because Palestinians did not submit a request to coordinate harvesting in that area, which is required ahead of time. The official added that the farm in question “requires only a small number of harvesters to collect its produce” and “the security establishment views the arrival of dozens of activists as an act intended solely to provoke, which undermines the harvesting process.”

Lander was released “once the matter was brought to our attention” that he is a congressional candidate, the official said.

Lander confirmed in a social media post that he was released with a “warning” because of his “public profile.”

Read more from Madison Fernandez in POLITICO.

IN OTHER NEWS

— MUSK: Elon Musk has spent more than $500,000 to support Rep. Mike Lawler’s reelection bid against Democratic challenger Cait Conley. (Gothamist)

— STOP: New York City deployed 600 red light cameras to intersections, the maximum number allowed under state law. (New York Daily News)

— MEASLES: In the wake of a measles crisis, the state Health Department remains locked in a court battle with Amish schools over religious vaccine exemptions. (The New York Times)

Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here.

The GOP has a midterm messaging problem. Ramaswamy isn’t helping

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Georgia Republicans are counting on Rick Jackson to save them from a wipeout in November — if President Donald Trump doesn’t get in the way.

The billionaire health care executive and political newcomer has spent nearly $200 million since he entered the Georgia governor’s race earlier this year. That’s boosted GOP hopes as many in the party have all but given up on the state’s marquee Senate race, where Rep. Mike Collins is struggling to close the gap against a formidably well-funded Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff. Republicans worry that their open contests for attorney general and lieutenant governor as well as control of the state general assembly could be in peril in a larger blue wave.

But Jackson’s deep pockets are being tested against a difficult political environment for Republicans, weighed down by unpopular Trump actions, including the war in Iran. And some in the GOP worry that the president’s repeated visits to Georgia could only make the situation worse.

“I don't know that Trump coming helps Republicans more so than it excites Democrats, especially in a wave election year, and so becomes and becomes a catch-22 for Republican candidates,” said Jason Shepherd, a former Cobb County chair who is supporting Jackson.

One Georgia-based Republican strategist who is not involved in the gubernatorial race posited that Trump’s dual appearances in the state almost certainly did more harm than help. They, like others in this article, were granted anonymity to speak openly about the race to avoid reprisals.

“Every piece of data that I've seen, it is not MAGA Republicans that are unmotivated to vote in this election,” the person said. “All the data that I've seen is that the undecideds in our marquee races, and specifically in the governor's race, have a very, very negative opinion of the president. So, I can't really rationalize a case for how it would be helpful.”

Jackson, for his part, has carefully navigated his relationship with the president, and has not publicly broken with him on policy like other battleground Republicans. But he has not mentioned the president in any of the nearly 150 ads he’s run in the general election, according to an analysis of data from tracking firm AdImpact. Shortly after the RNC announced that Trump would return to the state this weekend, Jackson’s team said in a statement that the candidate will be campaigning in a different part of Georgia.

And during his only televised gubernatorial debate on Oct. 6 against Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms, Jackson never name-dropped the president — despite his opponent invoking Trump’s name eight times. Instead, the Republican mentioned popular outgoing GOP Gov. Brian Kemp five times and focused on Bottoms’ tenure as mayor of Atlanta during the COVID pandemic.

“It’s been proven time and again that when the message is on Georgia, and the results under Brian Kemp and the conservative vision and roadmap that's been laid out here, that we win in Georgia. When the focus is on D.C. and personal politics, we lose,” said Cole Muzio, president of the conservative Frontline Policy Action group. 

The Jackson campaign declined to comment for this story.

“President Trump is the unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator for the Republican Party,” White House spokesperson Davis Ingle said in a statement.

Natalie Baldassarre, a spokesperson for the Republican National Committee, said in a statement that Republicans “are laser focused on winning, and our candidates will run the races necessary to best represent their districts and prevent Democrats from taking control."

Jackson is one of several Republicans across the country who now must balance between keeping the president close enough to turn out Republican base voters, but not so closely as to alienate the center.

Though many Georgia Republicans see Jackson as their de-facto ticket-topper, they don’t see his win as a guarantee against Bottoms, the former Atlanta mayor, in a finicky battleground state like Georgia. Jackson has outspent Bottoms nearly five-to-one in the final stretch of the race, but still remains in a close race in public polling.

And yet, without him, Republicans fear the bottom would have already fallen out on races up and down the ballot, given how poorly Collins is performing in polls against Ossoff. Republicans’ top Senate super PAC, Senate Leadership Fund, was dark in Georgia last week, a sign the race may be slipping out of reach.

“If Rick Jackson weren't running, we would all be in a lot of trouble,” said Stephen Lawson, a Georgia-based Republican strategist and Jackson ally. “He’s our best hope at keeping the state red.”

A second Georgia-based Republican strategist, who is working on other races in the state, underscored how Jackson’s money is keeping the party afloat. “There is no question in my mind that without the extra $150 million he spent in his general election, that the ticket would be lost,” this person said. “That is the only reason there's still a fight to be had.”

But, this person cautioned, the race is still very much a toss-up, and Jackson’s victory will rely on a large share of Georgia voters choosing to split their ballots between Ossoff for Senate and Jackson for governor.

Jackson’s allies are optimistic that a significant number of voters will do just that. A private statewide poll reviewed by POLITICO found that roughly 19% of Georgia voters say they are definitely or likely to cast a vote for at least one Democrat and one Republican — a potentially significant pool of crossover voters that could power two very different results in the marquee contests.

Whether the sheer force of Jackson’s spending will prove successful enough to overcome Trump is a microcosm of the larger issue his party is experiencing across the country: National Republicans, flush with cash, hold an enormous financial advantage over Democrats. But money alone may not be enough to insulate candidates in battlegrounds or even in traditionally red territory.

“I don't know that Republicans across the country should feel as bullish about the cash influx that we've gotten because it didn't work here,” said the first GOP operative. “In terms of actively moving races in our favor, it at least didn't work here.”

In the last month, as Bottoms began to spend more heavily on the air amid Jackson's spending advantage, her campaign has noted that polling has started to move marginally in her favor — even if the race remains largely within the margin of error. Her high name ID, as well as cash spent after the primary to define her early, are helping.

“Rick Jackson has spent $200 million in this campaign but all the money in the world can’t hide the fact that he would be a lackey for Donald Trump,” TaNisha Cameron, a spokesperson for Bottoms, said in a statement. “Despite being outspent, Keisha’s message is breaking through and she has the momentum in this race right when it matters."

Jackson is making more of an effort to tie himself closely to Kemp, who won over moderates and independents in his 2022 reelection for governor and has an approval rating that sits 30 points higher than the president’s in Georgia, according to a recent poll by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Kemp, for his part, has continued to be a presence on the trail for Jackson, including joining him on a statewide tour earlier this month and appearing in at least three TV ads for the campaign.

But Jackson’s pathway to victory requires him to not only secure crossover voters that may support Ossoff in the Senate race or the type of voters who broke for Kemp, but also turn out the MAGA base who powered the president’s two presidential victories in the perennial battleground.

The president is intent on still showing up for him.

Shortly after Jackson dispatched Trump’s initially preferred candidate, Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, in June’s primary runoff, the president was quick to praise Jackson as standing “strong with ‘TRUMP.’” And in subsequent posts on Truth Social, Trump has called the health care executive a “good friend.”

Trump, onstage on Friday, called Jackson a “great businessman,” before adding: “I’ve been watching you, you are good, and he never did this before. Hedid it because he wants to straighten out things and he’s an amazing, an amazing story.”

Aaron Pellish contributed reporting. 

Republicans are banking on a massive cash edge to help save their majority in Congress. But they are losing much of that advantage in an important arena: broadcast TV ads.

Republicans have spent $677 million on those ads across 10 key Senate battleground states, compared to $479 million by the Democrats. But the GOP’s money isn’t going nearly as far because they’re more dependent on outside groups that pay much higher rates than candidates.

The disparity has helped Democrats stay in the fight for Senate control amid an onslaught of GOP outside spending.

In Ohio’s Senate race, Republican groups make up 63% of the $218 million spent. But in spite of their nearly two-to-one spending advantage, they make up just over half of ads that are on the airwaves, according to data from the tracking service AdImpact. In Texas, Republicans have outspent Democrats by a three-to-one margin, but have aired just 58% of the ads. And in Michigan, the GOP accounts for 60% of the spending but just over half of the ads.

A large part of this discrepancy comes down to the mechanics of broadcast advertising. Candidates, and now political parties thanks to a recent Supreme Court ruling, are entitled to significantly lower rates. That has allowed Democratic candidates — who have posted bonkers fundraising hauls — to offset much of the GOP advantage in super PACs. Republican Senate candidates, on the other hand, struggled overall with their fundraising. And some GOP outside groups bought their ad time later, when it was even more expensive.

“There are limitations to the impact of ‘big money’ in politics,” said Sean Cooksey, a Republican former FEC commissioner. “It's a good demonstration of the economics of campaign fundraising. Hard dollars really just go so much further.”

The disparity also shows “the Republican overreliance on outside groups,” said Ian Russell, a Democratic admaker.

“You get an eye-popping dollar amount, but it doesn't actually translate into as many spots as you would think relative to a well-financed candidate,” Russell said. “[Republicans] were just hoping that they could spend their way out of everything that was going wrong for them.
But the problem is, their issues run much deeper than a few ad buys can fix. Especially when you've got monster fundraising hauls from the Democratic side.”

Republicans in House and Senate races have long been more dependent on outside groups and megadonors, and for multiple cycles have seen their cash advantage undercut by fundraising strength from individual Democratic candidates. But that trend is particularly pronounced this year given the combination of Republican super PAC money and their candidates’ struggles.

In 2024, Republican outside groups spent only about 15% more than Democrats on TV ads across House and Senate general election contests, according to a POLITICO analysis of AdImpact data. This cycle, GOP outside groups have spent 7% more.

In a few states, the discrepancy between dollars and airtime is less stark. Republicans account for 60% of the spending in Maine’s Senate race and an equal percentage of the ads, according to AdImpact. That’s in part because Sen. Susan Collins has outraised her Democratic opponent Troy Jackson over the whole cycle, although Jackson, who didn’t launch his campaign until July, raised far more in the third quarter.

The numbers show the shifting dynamics of campaign strategy after the Supreme Court opened the floodgates to more spending from parties by granting them the lower advertising rate.

Republicans have been faster to take advantage of the new rules: Major coordinated spending efforts from the NRSC and RNC have helped their side significantly this cycle.

Republicans have far outspent Democrats on Senate party-coordinated Senate advertising, $90 million to $34.6 million across TV, radio and digital ads, according to data from AdImpact.

“If I were the leader of either party, I would say you shouldn't give a dollar, you shouldn't give a single penny to these super PACs until you've maxed out to the party committee,” Cooksey said.

Some Republicans say that strategic errors have contributed to erasing their cash edge. A number of GOP strategists have also privately griped that MAGA Inc. — one of the major outside groups backing their candidates — bought TV airtime too late, forcing them to pay even higher rates and further draining resources and increasing the price of reaching voters. Republicans fretted for months about whether Trump’s well-financed super PAC, MAGA Inc., would get involved. The group has since spent heavily, but only launched its first general election ad buys in September.

“There is no question MAGA Inc. should have bought ads earlier in the cycle,” said one national GOP operative who was granted anonymity to discuss party strategy, noting that rates across the country increase as Election Day nears. Other top GOP outside groups, like the Senate Leadership Fund and the Congressional Leadership Fund, made their early advertising reservations much earlier in the cycle than MAGA Inc.

Trump allies waved away that criticism. A person familiar with the Trump operation’s midterm planning, granted anonymity to discuss strategy, said it’s "indisputable that the spending from the Trump political effort has kept us competitive in many Senate races.”

MAGA Inc. declined to comment.

Still, GOP outside groups are utilizing their cash advantage in some underappreciated ways.

Republican super PACs have massively outspent their Democratic counterparts on mail — roughly $157 million to $35 million for the general election — according to a POLITICO analysis of independent expenditure filings submitted to the Federal Election Commission. That’s led by a whopping $44 million in spending on mail across 24 races from the Trump-aligned No Going Back PAC, along with $23.8 million across 20 races from Elon Musk’s America PAC.

GOP-aligned super PACs have also spent more than Democratic ones on phone calls and text messages, the data shows.