Sen. Ted Cruz fired back at JD Vance for suggesting he's already focused on a 2028 presidential bid, calling the vice president "insecure" while insisting he's focused on the 2026 midterms.

“In my experience, people engage in political bomb-throwing when they're feeling insecure,” Cruz said in a phone interview Saturday. “So he's welcome to make whatever comments he likes. I'm going to keep focusing on the midterms and helping us win on Election Day in the next 30 days.”

Cruz’s comments came in response to an NBC News interview Thursday with Vance in which the vice president suggested Cruz was prematurely eyeing a White House run.

“It is really obvious to me that, at this very moment, Ted Cruz is running for president,” Vance said. “At this moment, I’m not. I’m trying to help elect Republicans. That’s what I’m going to keep on doing.”

Vance is widely viewed as the frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination, but Cruz has said he doesn’t believe Vance is the sure-fire nominee and suggested he might throw his own hat in the ring. “I’ll certainly be part of the discussion,” he told MS NOW in August.

On Saturday, Cruz told POLITICO he is dedicated to helping Republicans maintain control of both chambers of Congress. He pointed to his travel this cycle to campaign with candidates in Georgia, Iowa, Nebraska, South Carolina as well as in his home state of Texas as proof. He also said he has trips planned this month to campaign with Republicans in Alaska, Florida, North Carolina and South Carolina.

“Over the last 10 years, there's no Republican in the country who has campaigned for more Senate candidates, more House candidates, more gubernatorial candidates than I have, and this year will be no exception,” he said.

Cruz rattled off a list of a dozen GOP candidates he’s helped bolster in past years, including former Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina, U.S. House candidate Karoline Leavitt — and the vice president.

“Indeed, ironically, I spent a full day on the road with JD Vance, campaigning with him when he was running for Senate in Ohio [in 2022],” Cruz said. “I was very glad he won that race. I was very glad to help him.”

A spokesperson for Vance did not immediately respond to Cruz’s latest comments.

Vance campaigned in Texas and Florida this week and will hold a rally in Alaska on Monday.

Republicans have tried to find a new boogeyman this year as they rail against Democratic socialism and the “radical” left: Zohran Mamdani. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Bernie Sanders.

Still more mentioned than all of them, at least in campaign ads: former President Joe Biden.

A POLITICO review of hundreds of ads running in battleground House and Senate races in recent months shows Republicans largely haven’t seized on progressive icons in paid media. Instead, Biden is the Democrat most likely to be mentioned in GOP ads this cycle, coming up across dozens of races.

President Donald Trump has frequently sought to blame Biden for high prices and other challenges that his administration has faced. Even so, the former president has become a far less useful punching bag for Republicans since leaving office and remaining largely out of the spotlight: At this time in the 2024 cycle, Biden had been mentioned in more than 1,000 Republican House and Senate ads, according to AdImpact data.

The data illustrates how Republicans have been unable to land on a clear villain as they seek to convince voters that Democratic control of Congress would be worse than keeping the GOP in charge. Their warnings about old establishment figures like Biden and former Speaker Nancy Pelosi don’t land like they once did. But they also haven’t been able to seize on emerging democratic socialists like they had hoped to.

Democrats’ foil, meanwhile, has never been more obvious, with Trump’s approval rating in the mid-thirties amid continued high prices and the Iran war.

“No one will match the level of Pelosi for Republicans, in part because the Obamacare vote was such a touchstone moment. And the ‘we have to pass it to find out what’s in it,’” said Doug Heye, a longtime Republican operative who noted he still has “Fire Pelosi” swag from the Republicans’ successful 2010 midterm rout. The then-speaker was central to the GOP’s campaign message that year.

Part of the challenge for Republicans comes from Democrats’ lack of a clear leader. Pelosi stepped down from Democratic leadership at the start of 2023, and her successor, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) does not elicit the same animus from Republicans. In the 2022 cycle, her last term as Democratic leader, Pelosi was invoked in more than 80 GOP ads, POLITICO’s analysis found. Now, she’s mentioned just a handful of times, while Jeffries hasn’t been mentioned in any battleground TV ads this year, according to the POLITICO review of transcripts.

Biden was an easy target for the GOP in 2022 and 2024, when Republicans blamed him for high inflation and the cost of living. Now, poll after poll shows that voters are more likely to hold Trump — not Biden — responsible for the current state of the U.S. economy, even as Trump tries to redirect the blame.

Even Kamala Harris, the most recent Democratic standard-bearer as their 2024 nominee, is named less often in paid media this cycle than Biden. And among other potential future Democratic presidential candidates, only California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez appear as Republican foils — and not as often as Harris or Biden.

Ocasio-Cortez is often mentioned by Republicans in the same sentence as Sanders, especially when the GOP seeks to tie Democrats in battleground races to the party’s progressive wing. In Michigan’s hotly contested Senate race, former public health official Abdul El-Sayed was endorsed by both — something his opponent Mike Rogers and GOP outside groups have seized on.

“El Sayed is endorsed by extreme liberals like AOC, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders,” one recent ad from the conservative super PAC Sentinel Action Fund says.

Some Republicans have sought to run against the progressives even when there are no such ties: One ad that ran earlier this year from Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and the state’s GOP comptroller promised to stand up to Ocasio-Cortez, Sanders and the “new radical left.” Neither Sanders nor Ocasio-Cortez have endorsed in either race.

Most often, the GOP has run ads seeking to tie Democratic candidates to socialism or communism — the concepts themselves — in dozens of House battleground races and nearly every major Senate race. Just this week, the Trump administration launched a national $20 million DHS-funded campaign-style ad spree that features Trump lambasting “communism, socialism, and Marxism.”

But when it comes to specific political figures — like Mamdani, New York City’s mayor — it gets complicated. Republicans once salivated at the prospect of Mamdani as a foil when he was first elected last year. But his first year in office has largely boosted his standing with voters, complicating efforts to turn his tenure into a negative for Democrats.

Trump’s surprising continued embrace of the New York City mayor — just last week, the president stood by Mamdani and said he hoped he would “be a great mayor” — has further complicated GOP efforts to paint him as a villain.

In a handful of swingy New York congressional districts, Republicans have still attempted to tie their opponents to Mamdani, while Democrats have pushed back on the connection. In New York’s 21st District, which Trump won by more than 20 points two years ago, Democratic dairy farmer Blake Gendebien ran an ad arguing that his Republican opponent wants voters to think he’s “running against Zohran Mamdani” but “that’s a load of bull.”

The GOP has characterized prominent Democrats as socialist for decades. As progressives won a series of contested primaries this year, some Democrats worried the rise of figures with ties to the Democratic Socialists of America would give Republicans easy ammunition for the general election.

But being called a “socialist” may not have the same shock value it once did.

“I don’t think just calling a candidate ‘socialist’ works that well for Republicans, particularly this late in the game,” said Matt Towery, a longtime GOP pollster. “If a candidate focuses on parts of the DSA’s platform and can authentically pin it on their opponent, that might work. But Republicans just assume people have a bad reaction to the term socialist, and the term doesn’t elicit the same reaction it used to.”

Republicans know they have to spend big to save Ken Paxton. They’re increasingly worried MAGA Inc. won’t throw down in time.

In private conversations over recent weeks, senior Hill Republicans and GOP officials have nudged President Donald Trump’s team to start spending more on the Texas Senate race before it’s too late, according to three people with direct knowledge of those conversations, who were granted anonymity to discuss them.

Those fears escalated after audio leaked of Paxton privately trashing Trump’s midterm convention, with some worrying it could impact whether MAGA Inc. continues spending after a current wave of GOP ad bookings run out Oct. 12.

A Trump operative told POLITICO that MAGA Inc. and its affiliates are expected to spend near $45 million on direct mail, TV, and digital advertising in Texas through Oct. 12, an increase from its previous $20 million to boost Paxton. But they said the team is still assessing how much more money to send in the final weeks, in consultation with Senate Republicans and their top super PAC, the Senate Leadership Fund.

The Trump operative, who like others in this article was granted anonymity to speak candidly, would not commit to any plans when asked by POLITICO.

With national Democrats starting to finally spend for their Senate nominee, James Talarico, after months of holding off, and as polling of the race tightens, Republicans expect the cost of salvaging Paxton’s campaign will only skyrocket. And, they’ve started to panic.

“It’s a five-alarm fire, no doubt,” one GOP senator said. “Can we put it out? I hope so.”

“This is a slow-moving car crash that we're witnessing right now,” a Republican strategist in the state said. “And there's a 75% chance that the ultimate result here will be catastrophic from a GOP Senate majority standpoint.”

A fourth Republican, a national operative, spoke to the urgency factor: “While it’s money we shouldn’t have needed to spend, it needs to be spent now,” said a national GOP operative, describing the state as more winnable than North Carolina, Georgia and potentially Ohio.

Even with a massive war chest, Texas is turning into a huge money sink for the GOP that senators worry could hurt them in other tight races as they work to defend deep-red states and try to flip blue seats in Michigan and New Hampshire.

Trump himself nodded to some of the concerns at a rally just across the Texas border in Oklahoma Thursday night, saying those voters aren’t the ones he’s concerned about.

“We’re worried about Michigan. We’re worried about Texas,” he told the crowd. “We’re worried about a few states.”The president is scheduled to visit Texas again next week for a rally in San Antonio next Wednesday.

SLF poured another $60 million into Texas on Wednesday, bringing its total expenditure there to a record-breaking $131 million. With the MAGA Inc. money and additional GOP ad reservations, the race is already on track to top $200 million from outside Republican groups hoping to save Paxton. Paxton’s own campaign recently announced a $20 million ad buy — one of the largest single media investments in a Texas Senate race.

Some Republicans want MAGA Inc. to take over spending for Paxton in Texas in the final few weeks, so SLF can focus its resources elsewhere. MAGA Inc. could also funnel money into SLF’s recently established Texas PAC. But, according to two people with direct knowledge of that matter, that hasn’t happened.

“At some point I think the people spending that money are going to have to make hard choices and figure out where the money can have the biggest impact, and certainly Texas is the most expensive,” Sen. John Cornyn, who lost to Trump-backed Paxton in the primary, recently told POLITICO.

SLF Executive Director Alex Latcham indicated to POLITICO the group will keep spending in Texas: “Senate Leadership Fund’s investment through Texas PAC affirms our commitment to maintaining the Republican majority and defeating Far-Left liberals like James Talarico.”

But Republicans’ money concerns have been complicated by Paxton himself. A growing number of GOP senators and top operatives have been stunned by what they described as unforced errors by the Texas Senate nominee. For example, he crossed one of the brightest red lines with Trump, telling a group of donors that “everybody’s numbers dropped” after the president’s GOP convention in Dallas last month, according to the audio leak reported by The New York Times.

“There seems to be very little strategy there,” said another Republican senator, granted anonymity to candidly discuss the race. “Sometimes, I think [Paxton] wants to lose.”

The White House did not respond to a request for comment.

Trump, while on his way to Texas to tour a motor facility on Thursday, told reporters he hadn’t talked to Paxton about his convention comments. Later, he told a crowd in Texas that “Ken Paxton was at my side more than anybody, and I have to always remember that because he can be a pain in the ass sometimes. I’ll be honest.”

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) told reporters this week that he hadn’t seen the audio of Paxton trashing Trump’s convention. He acknowledged the stakes in his home state were high — and that the influx of cash is key.

“The reason that it is a serious race and a close race right now is that for several months the Democrats were massively outspending us,” he said, “and I am glad now that we are seeing money invested in communicating with the voters.”

The White House has attempted to reassure concerned senators, with chief of staff Susie Wiles telling Senate Republicans this week that there will be enough money available for competitive races in the final stretch, according to two people with knowledge of the meeting.

GOP operatives in both Michigan and New Hampshire said they feel that some of the cash being shoveled toward Texas should be going to their states instead. Most polls show Republicans running narrowly behind or neck and neck in both states, even though they hold a spending advantage on the airwaves there.

“We’re focusing so much on ‘we’ve got to put this money into Texas.’ Why? We’ve never had a problem in Texas. Let’s focus on taking back a seat we haven’t had in years,” said an ally of former Sen. John E. Sununu, who’s in a tight race against Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas. “There are real chances in Michigan and New Hampshire,” said the person, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly about the dynamics.

Sununu’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

Latcham, who heads SLF, said that “Texas PAC is a dedicated effort that will not take resources from our other ongoing investments across the Senate map.”

Recent polling still shows the Texas Senate race with a razor-thin margin. Most public polling over the past two months shows Talarico with an edge, though Paxton’s campaign released an internal poll Tuesday that shows Paxton leading by three points among likely voters, 48% to 45%.

“I don't think the needle has moved in the last month,” said one Texas Republican elected official, granted anonymity to speak frankly. “Unless it's the worst polling that's ever been done in political history, all this spend hasn't changed anything, and I think people have made their mind up."

Lisa Kashinsky, Samuel Benson, Alex Gangitano and Kelsey Brugger contributed to this report. 

RAPE LAW LOOPHOLE: Gov. Kathy Hochul vowed today to close a loophole embedded in state rape law around voluntary intoxification as she laced into Cornell University police and a local district attorney for their handling of a 2024 gang rape allegation.

Under current law, proving sexual assault is difficult if a victim voluntarily consumed alcohol or drugs. Individuals cannot consent “by reason of being mentally disabled or mentally incapacitated,” which generally applies to involuntary consumption of drugs or alcohol. Hochul said she would work with lawmakers “early” to change the law when they return to Albany in January.

“Voluntary intoxication is not a license for sexual assault or gang rape,” Hochul told reporters at her Midtown Manhattan office. “Period. I support closing this loophole and will work with the New York State Legislature to accomplish this.”

The State Senate has consistently attempted to do just that through legislation, but the Assembly has yet to bring the bill up for a vote.

Hochul also appointed New York Attorney General Letitia James as special prosecutor on the case. Cornell President Michael Kotlikoff has agreed to an independent review.

The plaintiff, a former Cornell student, alleged in a lawsuit that several men raped her at the Chi Phi house after coercing her into consuming drugs. The case attracted national attention after the student-run Cornell Daily Sun broke the story.

The woman, identified in court papers as Jane Doe, told the Cornell campus police that she was “100 percent confident that she had been raped,” according to a transcript of her conversation with investigators.

But that part of her account, Hochul noted, was omitted from the materials Cornell police sent to Tompkins County District Attorney Matthew Van Houten, who declined to pursue charges without interviewing the woman.

“In what world would the police learn from the victim that she had been literally gang-raped while intoxicated by five men in a fraternity house and not elevate those allegations to the district attorney?” she said. “In what world does the district attorney not even interview her or anyone else involved, or even request the full transcript?”

Earlier this week, James expressed solidarity with Jane Doe on social media. When asked about her decision to affirm the allegation, she declined to comment.

Rebecca Valli, a Cornell spokesperson, said the university agrees with the governor’s decision.

“We fully support the appointment of a special prosecutor and efforts to change New York State’s rape law and are committed to an independent external review of all aspects of how Cornell has handled this case,” Valli said in a statement.

Van Houten, the Tompkins County prosecutor, said in a statement today that “we were not provided the full picture by the university.” — Madina Touré

MARK YOUR CALENDAR: Join POLITICO’s New York Outlook: Affordability, Industry & The Economy on Oct. 14 for live conversations about the business and policy decisions being made today — from City Hall to the State Capitol — that will shape the city’s economic future. The lineup includes New York City Council Speaker Julie Menin, New York City Economic Development Corp. CEO Anthony Shorris, Partnership for NYC CEO Steven Fulop, Citizens Budget Commission President Andrew Rein, Charles H. Revson Foundation President Maria Torres-Springer, and more. Register now to attend in person or watch the livestream.

From the Capitol

SPACE JAM: The fledgling United States Space Force is trying to find a home for its academy.

State Sen. James Skoufis wants to make it so in the Hudson Valley, proposing that the recently formed military branch select Stewart International Airport.

“New York Stewart International Airport would be an exceptional site for this project. It offers existing aerospace infrastructure — including one of the few runways in the country designated for space shuttle landings — alongside significant on-site development opportunities,” Skoufis wrote in a letter to Hochul this week.

The Democratic state lawmaker is seizing on a NASA-led effort seeking input from governors interested in hosting or sponsoring the academy in their state.

Skoufis wants to build interest in having the academy placed in New York, where some officials are trying to encourage growth in the space sector.

“We built the Apollo lunar landers and refined the optics for every major NASA telescope,” said Patrick Chase, co-founder of Empire Space, a non-profit promoting economic opportunities in space. “The Empire State is the best location for the United States Space Academy, continuing our bold legacy as a pioneer of the American Space Age." — Nick Reisman

BLAKEMAN’S VAGUE VOWS: Republican Bruce Blakeman has spent this year’s gubernatorial campaign focused on attacks — leaving serious questions about what he’d actually do if elected governor.

With a month to go until Election Day, the Nassau County executive doesn’t have a policy section on his website. On the campaign trail, he’s opted against making detailed policy prescriptions in favor of going after Hochul and Mayor Zohran Mamdani.

When asked in August about his plan to reign in housing costs — a top concern among New York voters — Blakeman pivoted immediately to ideology: “It’s not through socialism.”

“That’s a failed system,” he said at the time. “Mamdani the Commie and Comrade Kathy, they have this completely backwards because wherever they’ve instituted socialism it’s been making people miserable.”

Blakeman’s policy agenda has focused on two major issues — massive tax cuts and an immediate 50 percent reduction in utility bills on his first day in office. But neither plan has been backed up by accounting that might suggest they’re plausible. His campaign declined repeated requests to release a plan detailing the cuts needed for the tax breaks.

“It strikes me as very back-of-the-envelope,” said E.J. McMahon, who helped author former Republican Gov. George Pataki’s tax cut proposal. “A damp, coffee-stained envelope.”

George Marlin, a former Conservative Party mayoral nominee in New York City and ex-director of the Nassau Interim Finance Authority, took such criticism a step further, writing in a Times Union op-ed today that Blakeman’s record on Long Island suggests he is not “fiscally skilled enough to merit a promotion to the state’s top job.”

“As county executive, Blakeman has done nothing to restrain spending,” Marlin wrote. “Despite his misleading campaign rhetoric, he has never cut a penny in county taxes.”

Blakeman’s campaign did not respond to Marlin’s attacks.

Read more from Bill Mahoney in POLITICO here. 

TROOPER ONE’S SUIT: A federal judge this week dismissed one of the retaliation claims against ex-Gov. Andrew Cuomo in a lawsuit filed by a former member of his State Police security detail.

U.S. District Court Judge LaShann DeArcy Hall determined that because the alleged retaliation occurred in February 2022 — after Cuomo resigned from office — it did not constitute acting “under color of state law.”

The woman, known in court documents as Trooper 1, alleged in the lawsuit that Cuomo sexually harassed her and that his former top aides subsequently retaliated against her. The former governor has denied any wrongdoing.

“We respectfully disagree with the Court's decision,” said Valdi Licul, Trooper 1’s lawyer. “Multiple federal and state agencies found that Cuomo sexually harassed Trooper 1 and other women. We don’t believe his resignation in response to his proven misconduct permitted him to further violate the law by threatening one of his victims. We intend to appeal as soon as we are able.”

Azzopardi, Cuomo’s spokesperson, responded: “Despite what Trooper 1’s attorneys may think, New Yorkers aren’t stupid, they know Governor Cuomo never harassed nor retaliated against anyone and a simple review of the facts by the courts is why their case continues to crumble, the same way 5 DA’s review of those same ‘agency reviews’ found no there there and the two civil cases against him were ultimately dropped.” — Nick Reisman

FROM CITY HALL

FINAL FRONTIER FEAR: At least one of the artificial intelligence firms set to testify before the City Council is supportive of the lawmakers’ regulatory efforts.

Council Speaker Julie Menin plans to convene the entire body Monday for a hearing where leading AI companies will testify and provide input on a legislative package that would put guardrails around the emerging technology.

In a letter sent Thursday to Menin and her colleagues — and obtained by Playbook — an executive from OpenAI said the firm is broadly behind the Council’s push.

“We appreciate the Council’s focus on frontier safety, including transparency, third-party assessments, reporting of critical incidents and protecting whistleblowers, consumer protection, election-related deepfakes, and other key safety areas,” wrote Chan Park, head of U.S. and Canada policy and partnerships for OpenAI. “We also strongly support the Council’s goal of strengthening the City’s readiness to prevent and respond to AI-related cyber threats and emergencies.”

In his letter, Park noted the ways AI is contributing to advances in science and education, but acknowledged the concerns over frontier AI models raised by Menin and the company’s own executives as part of a broad unease over how rapidly the technology is advancing.

Park did not get into the particulars of each Council bill, but he noted OpenAI is also supportive of a state regulatory framework known as the RAISE Act and has been providing Albany with input on tweaks to the legislation and the state’s cybersecurity efforts.

“Our own safeguards are essential, but voluntary company commitments alone are not enough,” Park wrote. “Enforceable standards, independent scrutiny, and public accountability are necessary to ensure that increasingly capable AI is developed and used responsibly.” — Joe Anuta

IN OTHER NEWS

— FLUSHING’S FACELIFT: As plans for a new “town square” in Flushing move forward, residents have raised concerns about gentrification and displacement. (Gothamist)

— FOSTER CARE: Foster care agencies in New York are facing an unprecedented crisis of rapidly rising insurance costs, and they want state Democrats to approve a relief bill. (Times Union)

— HAMAS HELPERS: The NYPD helped catch two brothers from Louisiana allegedly involved in a Hamas fundraising scheme. (New York Post)

Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here.

Senate Republicans are suddenly rushing to save a Senate seat in Kansas.

On Friday, the Senate Leadership Fund, Senate Republicans’ top super PAC, reserved over $8 million in ads starting this weekend to prop up GOP Sen. Roger Marshall, according to tracking firm AdImpact.

The spending in a state where Democrats haven’t won a Senate race in 94 years comes amid a deteriorating national political environment for the GOP. The impact of spiking diesel and fertilizer prices driven by the war with Iran, coupled with President Donald Trump’s trade wars, have been acutely felt in the heartland.

Private polling from both parties shows a deadlocked race between Marshall and Democrat Adam Hamilton in a state Trump carried by 16 points in 2024.

“It’s a perfect storm,” said one senior Senate GOP aide, granted anonymity to candidly discuss the race. “The president isn’t making it any better.”

Lower Costs Now, a new Super PAC affiliated with former Vice President Kamala Harris’ Super PAC, dropped about $700,000 into the state Thursday night, and Democrats are considering more spending to bolster Hamilton. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has been including Kansas in private fundraising pitches to donors, according to two people familiar with the conversations.

It’s a remarkable shift in a state that was not high on either party’s target list just a few months ago — and shows the ferocity of the headwinds Republicans face in the final month of the campaign.

“I think we're on track to win, but I am comforted to know that the cavalry is coming,” said Danedri Herbert, chair of the Kansas Republican Party. Herbert said Hamilton’s particular appeal as a pastor who heads the largest United Methodist church in the country, located in suburban Kansas City, made him formidable.

“I personally know people who attend or have attended that church in the past,” said Herbert. “The ones that I know are right-leaning, and so that's troublesome. That's trouble — just the sheer ability to reach some of those people who are just always our people. I was telling national groups early on, like, ‘you should pay attention here.’”

Republicans say the warning signs have been visible in Kansas for months as the agriculture-heavy state got hammered by a series of economic blows, including increased input prices from Trump’s tariffs, high fuel prices as a result of the Iran war, his decision to increase foreign beef imports, and heavy-handed immigration enforcement.

As diesel prices shot up just ahead of the peak harvest season, the situation started to deteriorate even more in Kansas, according to Republicans.

Vice President JD Vance visited Olathe, Kansas, in mid-September to campaign with Marshall, a sign of the GOP’s growing worries. Days later, he took a shot at Hamilton during a speech in western Iowa for having “kind of a ‘gee whiz, I’m a nice pastor’ vibe,” but said he “tells his congregation not about the gospel of Jesus Christ, but that they need to repent for their white privilege while eating beef” — a reference to a frequent attack line on Hamilton about his past calls to decrease carbon emissions. Marshall recently criticized the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement, saying recent ICE operations in western Kansas should have coordinated with local law enforcement.

A handful of recent public polls have shown a close race in recent weeks. Hamilton’s internal polling and a recent poll for the Democratic Attorneys General Association shared with POLITICO found him tied or up a few points against Marshall. Republicans’ numbers are no better: One Republican involved in the race said a recent private GOP poll had Marshall down within the margin of error and said Trump’s approval rating has been underwater since summer in the state; another person said a different GOP poll of Kansas found a tied Senate race.

“I take it as a compliment that the Republicans are now going, ‘Oh my gosh, we didn't think we were going to have to put money into Kansas, and now we're going to pour millions of dollars in to try to save Roger Marshall,’” said Hamilton in an interview on The Conversation with Dasha Burns, published Friday. “And I don't think they're going to save him.”

SLF’s Kansas ad buy came as they pulled back in North Carolina — the latest sign of a deteriorating national political environment.

And the agriculture-heavy Midwest has been particularly impacted by Trump’s policies. Republicans are currently fighting to hold onto Senate, House and governor’s seats in red-leaning Iowa and Ohio, and even redder Nebraska and Kansas.

Retiring GOP Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) said the repeated economic blows to the Midwest were contributing to a series of tighter than comfortable races, including the Kansas Senate race.

“It’s the policies and the chaos,” Bacon said. “That’s why Trump’s numbers are low. Tariffs are not popular in the Midwest and they contribute to the cost of goods.”

National Republicans played down those concerns for weeks, arguing Marshall was still holding strong in polling and dispelling the belief that a Democrat could actually win the state.

But privately, top Senate GOP operatives and Republican senators have been deeply worried about worsening economic conditions across the Midwest, increasing the states where they need to play defense.

"He's running scared,” one western Kansas Republican, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the race, said. “I don't know if they took Hamilton for granted, but people are tired of Marshall not doing anything.”

Asked for comment for this story, a spokesperson for the Marshall campaign sent a link to a New York Post article that details a $1.2 million buy for an ad that alleges Hamilton failed to report a pedophile who volunteered at Hamilton’s church’s camp; Hamilton’s campaign has previously said the attacks are false.

“Adam Hamilton is a pedophile protector who would vote with Democrats like Chuck Schumer. He will never be the U.S. Senator from Kansas,” said National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesperson Samantha Cantrell.

The SLF ad launching Saturday accuses Hamilton of being “a two-faced extremist,” and accuses him of “founding a radical group promoting the idea that all white people are racist.”

"Adam Hamilton is running a strong campaign that’s giving a voice to Kansas families, farmers, seniors, and everyone being crushed by Roger Marshall’s toxic agenda," Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesperson Monica Robinson said in a statement shared after publication. "Marshall is right to be terrified that he will lose his job in November."

Hamilton spokesperson Tyson Brody referenced a New York Times report about Marshall, a former obstetrician, and his involvement in lawsuits against patients who didn’t pay past due bills as he dismissed the ad barrage on behalf of a “failing” incumbent.

“With this new ad, Marshall is turning to these desperate lies and false attacks because Kansans have learned Roger Marshall had pregnant mothers arrested and jailed over small medical debts, and voted to block the release of the Epstein files,” he said.

Democrats have also hammered Marshall over the amount of time his family spends in Florida, where they have a second home.

Hamilton is considering a late-stage fundraising swing later this month that includes an event in Boston, according to a person familiar with the planning and granted anonymity to discuss it. Democrats are bullish about the state, but are facing a cash crunch across the map that could hinder their ability to spread money so far that it reaches Kansas. Senate Majority PAC was already “actively thinking” about whether to wade into the state, its president told POLITICO last week.

Democrats are growing bullish about other Kansas races as well. Recent polling has also shown a relatively close race in the fight to replace term-limited Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly as well as for attorney general. And the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added Kansas’ 2nd District, which Trump carried by nearly 20 points in 2024, to its extended offensive targets list Friday.

“It's momentum, and that's what we're seeing across the state,” said Chris Mann, the Democratic nominee for attorney general.

A spokesperson for Ty Masterson, the Republican gubernatorial candidate, pointed POLITICO to a mid-September Emerson College poll which showed their candidate leading Holscher 51% to 44%. The same poll found Hamilton leading Marshall 45% to 43%.

Leading Republicans are pulling back from the North Carolina Senate race, sending a clear message: What was a top-tier battleground at the start of the cycle is no longer worth the money.

The foremost Senate GOP super PAC, Senate Leadership Fund, is pausing its future spending in North Carolina and instead launching a seven-figure ad buy in deep-red Kansas, according to one person familiar with the move. The news was first reported by Semafor.

The dramatic change in strategy — less than four weeks before the midterms — comes after SLF previously spent more than $30 million to boost GOP nominee Michael Whatley. It also comes as public polling has continued to show Whatley unable to close the gap against popular former Gov. Roy Cooper, the Democratic candidate.

Republicans are now deprioritizing a state that President Donald Trump carried in all three presidential runs, and that Democrats haven’t won in the Senate since 2008.

“We are all clear-eyed about where North Carolina stands,” said one national GOP operative working on Senate races, who like others in this article was granted anonymity to speak candidly.

SLF isn’t the only major GOP group shifting away from North Carolina as Republicans focus on other must-win seats and deep-red states, amid the Iran war, high fuel prices and other economic fallout of the war in Iran.

Earlier Friday, the Koch-aligned Americans for Prosperity Action left North Carolina off its $22 million list of future spending across key Senate contests, as POLITICO reported. Another major Republican group focused specifically on boosting Whatley — Old North Action — removed $6.5 million in ad reservations from North Carolina’s Senate race last month.

“Michael Whatley is a good man who took one for the team — but with states like Alaska, Kansas, and Texas requiring continued resource commitments, there is only so much,” said another national GOP operative working on midterm races. “Especially against a very popular former Governor in Roy Cooper.”

The National Republican Senatorial Committee is currently running coordinated ad reservations with six of its battleground candidates. Whatley in North Carolina is not one of them, according to data from advertising tracking service AdImpact.

NRSC regional press secretary Nick Puglia said in a statement that “Whatley will put North Carolina families first by cutting taxes and keeping criminals locked up.”

Whatley for months has struggled to boost his name ID against the much better-known Cooper. Some recent public polls show Cooper leading Whatley by double-digit margins. Private polling has also hardly budged, despite the recent influx of spending, according to a person working on the race.

In a statement, Whatley spokesperson DJ Griffin said the team feels “confident we have the resources” to win in November.

“Roy Cooper recently said about federal elections in North Carolina, ‘Democrats are often ahead until they are not,’” Griffin said. “Undecided Voters who break late decide the election in North Carolina and the majority of those Late-Breakers typically go Republican.”

AFP Action and Old North Action did not immediately respond to a request for comment about North Carolina. SLF declined to comment.

SLF’s decision came as a shock to some, but not all, North Carolina Republicans — mostly because Senate Majority Leader John Thune has been scheduled to be in North Carolina for an event with Whatley on Thursday night. Thune ended up joining the event virtually, according to two people with direct knowledge of the matter.

For weeks, top Republicans acknowledged North Carolina may be slipping away. One Republican who attended a donor meeting with Senate Majority Leader John Thune and SLF during the Dallas convention told POLITICO that holding the state would be “tough.”

“The map has shifted a little bit, and to be fair, we knew that was going to be a tough one from the beginning," said one GOP operative working on Senate races, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the landscape.

Democrats are not letting up, recognizing that the contest in the purple state could still be close.

"A Democrat has not won statewide federal office here in nearly two decades, and North Carolina is a 50-50 state,” Cooper campaign manager Jeff Allen said in a statement.

“We’re building a campaign to earn every vote and make sure North Carolinians know that Roy Cooper will fight for them, while Michael Whatley will continue to enrich himself at their expense,” Allen said.

One North Carolina GOP strategist said that while Whatley has been a “fine” candidate, the current political climate coupled with Cooper’s long record in the state may be too much to overcome. And while Republicans have repeatedly hammered Cooper on crime, he still has strong favorability ratings from his time as governor.

“He's really kind of hard to paint as a radical, 'cause, you know, he's like Aunt Martha. She's just been there forever. And so it's just very difficult to get any traction on that, because, you know, people say, 'well, Roy's okay,’” they said.

When told that SLF was moving money from North Carolina to Kansas, the strategist responded: “$6.50 diesel fuel will kick your ass.”

Political cartoons from the desk of Matt Wuerker

Every week political cartoonists throughout the country and across the political spectrum apply their ink-stained skills to capture the foibles, memes, hypocrisies and other head-slapping events in the world of politics. The fruits of these labors are hundreds of cartoons that entertain and enrage readers of all political stripes. Here's an offering of the best of this week's crop, picked fresh off the Toonosphere. Edited by Matt Wuerker.

Adam Hamilton on faith, Trump and the fight for Kansas

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WORKING OUT THE KINKS: New York’s Department of Health began transitioning more than 147,000 Medicaid and Medicare Savings Program enrollees to an upgraded case management system about a year ago.

Since then, state officials say only a third of them have been able to automatically renew their coverage without assistance.

The shift is part of a $1.1 billion contract aimed at creating an automated system for Medicaid enrollees to receive real-time determinations on their eligibility for the two programs. While the new system is intended to create a seamless enrollment process, for many consumers it’s been riddled with challenges.

The initiative is part of a broader effort to move the Medicaid program away from local social services departments that still rely on paper applications and an outdated system in desperate need of overhaul. The state wants to transition the program to one centralized system run through its public health insurance marketplace, New York State of Health, according to officials.

Lindsay Heckler, managing attorney for policy at the nonprofit Center for Elder Law & Justice, said her firm has seen a surge in inappropriate denials.

“I’m not saying the new system shouldn’t be in place,” Heckler said. “But the concern is that the training and processes that are in place are preventing people from becoming eligible. My concern is that in the coming year they are moving more people into a system that doesn’t have the kinks worked out for the people that are in the system right now.”

The state began rolling out the new Medicaid Eligibility and Client Management system in September 2025. A second wave of more complex cases is expected to migrate to the new system between November 2027 and February 2028. And while state officials say the system — which was created by Deloitte Consulting through a $1.1 billion contract — was thoroughly tested by both the Health Department and the company, they concede that problems remain and are being addressed as they’re flagged.

Advocates describe the situation in starker terms. They say errors have put health care coverage in jeopardy for people who are 65 years and older, blind or disabled. They also told POLITICO they’ve discovered inaccurate information being transferred, a flawed automated asset verification tool and state workers’ inability to manually override inappropriate denials.

Deloitte did not respond to a request for comment.

New York entered into a $177 million contract with Deloitte in August 2023. But that projected outlay has grown to $1.18 billion after the state quietly filed four amendments to the initial deal, which ended on March 31, 2025. The latest amendment included an $866 million extension along with a work plan modification, according to details of the contract listed in the Open Book New York database.

The Health Department said the contract extension will complete the migration of Medicaid enrollees to the new system, which includes more complex cases in the next wave, such as long-term care and nursing home patients. The contract also includes additional funding for Deloitte to conduct testing and ensure compliance with new federal requirements.

“This multi-year transition to a centrally administered model will replace the outdated, expensive, error-prone and inefficient paper-based system with a streamlined, user-friendly platform that better supports the health coverage needs of New Yorkers while reducing the potential for waste, fraud, and abuse,” Health Department spokesperson Cadence Acquaviva said in a statement. “At every step of the way, this transition and contract were subject to extensive federal review and approval by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.”

Read more in POLITICO Pro from Katelyn Cordero. 

MARK YOUR CALENDAR: Join POLITICO’s New York Outlook: Affordability, Industry & The Economy on Oct. 14 for live conversations about the business and policy decisions being made today — from City Hall to the State Capitol — that will shape the city’s economic future. The lineup includes New York City Council Speaker Julie Menin, New York City Economic Development Corp. CEO Anthony Shorris, Partnership for NYC CEO Steven Fulop, Citizens Budget Commission President Andrew Rein, Charles H. Revson Foundation President Maria Torres-Springer, and more. Register now to attend in person or watch the livestream.

From the Capitol

JACOBS WINS: State Democratic Committee Chair Jay Jacobs handily won a new two-year term on the job, receiving 82 percent of the weighted vote at a party gathering in Westchester today.

Jacobs — who angered the left last year by declining to endorse then-Democratic mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani in the general election — faced a challenge from Otsego County chair Caitlin Ogden. He preached unity as his victory message, inviting Ogden to join his leadership team in a “substantive” role.

“This party has got to come to an understanding that our first priority is electing Democrats in whatever districts they’re in, and speak the language of the people in those districts,” Jacobs said. “All sides of our party need to learn to listen, to understand, to respect each other. There should be no vitriol inside the Democratic Party tent.”

Party members have traditionally supported the governor’s choice for chair. Gov. Kathy Hochul never publicly wavered in her support for Jacobs, making clear in recent weeks he was still her pick.

“I want to thank him for accepting the weight, the responsibilities,” she told party officials today. “Not the easiest job in the state. But he has done it in a way that has brought us together.”

Jacobs, who also heads the Nassau County Democratic Committee, has chaired the state party under the past three governors, serving from 2009-2012 and since 2019. If he completes his new two-year stint, he’d be just one term away from surpassing FDR kingmaker James Farley as the longest-tenured chair in the history of the New York Democrats. — Bill Mahoney

FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL

POLL POSITION: Republican Rep. Mike Lawler and Democratic challenger Cait Conley are locked in a tight race, per a new Emerson College/PIX11 poll.

Conley earned 48% of support to Lawler’s 46%, with 7% of respondents undecided.

Lawler has more crossover support than Conley does, and independents break for him. But the pollsters note the percentage of Democratic backing for him fell from an Emerson survey in October 2024, while Conley’s GOP support increased compared to Lawler’s 2024 opponent, former Rep. Mondaire Jones.

Hochul’s favorability is underwater in the district — 40% of respondents approve and 49% disapprove — though the pollsters acknowledge she’s on better footing than she was in 2024. President Donald Trump is also unpopular, with 43% approving his performance and 53% disapproving. The poll did not ask about Mamdani, a favorite foil of Lawler’s on the trail.

The survey was conducted among 400 likely voters from Sept. 27-29. It has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 4.9 percentage points. — Madison Fernandez

TRUMP TO CNY: Trump is considering a trip to upstate New York on Oct. 9 to appear alongside Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman, according to three people with knowledge of the discussions.

The event is being considered for central New York, but has not been finalized, said a fourth person. The people were granted anonymity to disclose the private conversations about the potential trip.

Blakeman’s campaign did not comment and the White House did not immediately return messages seeking comment.

Trump previously appeared on Long Island this summer to rally with Blakeman and Republican House candidates.

Read more from POLITICO’s Nick Reisman.

FROM CITY HALL

BILLIONAIRE’S ZO: Mamdani hosted fifteen business leaders — several of them billionaires — at Gracie Mansion yesterday for the inaugural meeting of his Business Advisory Council.

The council brings together business executives across industries to help guide the city’s economic policy and shepherd growth and innovation. Despite decrying the ultra wealthy, Mamdani welcomed input from billionaires such as Chobani founder and CEO Hamdi Ulukaya and Jefferson River Capital Chairman Tony James on how to address the affordability crisis, which has inhibited their ability to recruit top talent.

The council also discussed potential plans to convert unused office space across the city into arts and research hubs, according to a spokesperson for the mayor.

While he was welcoming other business execs to his home, one of the mayor’s biggest billionaire foes, Ken Griffin, was announcing his $3 billion donation to Carnegie Mellon University, the largest single donation in the history of American higher education.

Most of that money is earmarked to build the university a new campus in Miami — months after Griffin said the mayor’s rhetoric prompted him to “double down” on investments in Florida, rather than New York.

The Mamdani-Griffin beef swelled this spring when the mayor posed in front of Griffin’s $238 million penthouse in a social media video promoting his pied-à-terre tax. In the post, Mamdani framed the billionaire as a prime target of his tax-the-rich agenda.

Griffin responded by calling the video “creepy and weird,” saying his plans to further invest outside of New York were “an immediate and direct consequence of the mayor’s poor decision.”

“We will welcome anyone's support, anyone's involvement, and we will always do so because this is a city that belongs to all who live here,” Mamdani said when asked about Griffin’s historic donation. — Molly Reinmann

IN OTHER NEWS

— RETREAT: NYC first lady Rama Duwaji reportedly sojourned at an Islamic wellness retreat with a history of calling for the destruction of Israel, as her husband was rolling out his blueprint to combat antisemitism. (Washington Free Beacon)

— CHATBOT GOVERNANCE: The Mamdani administration is planning to unroll new AI safeguards, including cracking down on chatbots used in customer service and launching a formal study of AI assistants. (POLITICO Pro)

— SPEEDING THINGS UP: Mamdani’s administration unveiled 12 districts where housing will be fast-tracked. (POLITICO Pro)

Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here.

Republicans know President Donald Trump's unpopularity poses a big problem for them in November. They also recognize he may be their only option to avoid a wipeout.

Five weeks before Election Day, many Republicans are facing a damned-if-they-do, damned-if-they-don’t dilemma. Some candidates in close races are wary of alienating undecided voters by campaigning alongside Trump and the baggage that comes with him: High gas prices, voters’ persistent economic concerns and the prolonged war in Iran.

But keeping the president at arm’s length could make it harder to turn out the low-propensity base voters they need — voters that only Trump has been able to bring to the polls.

“These guys are in a pickle,” said one national GOP operative granted anonymity to speak candidly about the landscape, like others in this article. “They may not want Trump to come to the district, but there are still things that Trump can do to help.”

Asked what would happen if Trump campaigned in a battleground state where their candidates were running, another GOP operative working on midterm races said: “I suspect my candidates would come down with COVID.”

But the candidates may not have much of a choice. Trump is increasingly inserting himself into the election in the closing stretch, ramping up his campaign travel with a slate of stops scheduled in red states, repeatedly imploring voters to “pretend” he’s on the ballot and, most recently, appearing in taxpayer-funded campaign-style ads that the White House has claimed are Public Service Announcements.

Some Republicans have encouraged Trump’s team not to send the president to a blue-leaning Omaha district and other key districts where his approval rating is underwater ahead of Election Day, according to two people with direct knowledge of the matter. Brinker Harding is running in the Omaha seat being vacated by retiring Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.); his campaign didn’t respond when asked if he’ll attend Trump’s upcoming rally in Grand Island, Nebraska, about a two-hour drive away.

Others have said similar things.

"They've called me four times now to see if we want him to come, and I've said no," one senior Republican involved in a House GOP battleground race in a district Trump safely won in 2024 told POLITICO.

Another Republican operative familiar with Republican midterm strategy said the party views its role — and Trump’s — primarily as driving GOP turnout, while the work of persuading moderates, independents and other swing voters falls more heavily on individual candidates.

“Where the president is going is being decided very strategically, to areas where we are trying to boost turnout among Republican voters,” the operative said. “We're not going to be sending him into areas where it would necessarily be hurtful to our candidates.”

Others in red states that are increasingly competitive acknowledge that if they want to rally the MAGA base to the degree necessary to hold onto key seats, no one can deliver like Trump.

“He's a turnout machine for the Republican Party, the president is,” said Ohio GOP Chair Alex Triantafilou, who will welcome Trump to his state on Saturday. “I certainly know what some of the national polling and some of the pundits have to say about this. But he is always welcome to Ohio because we know that he fires our people up.”

Not everyone thinks Trump is a net-positive even in places he comfortably won.

A national GOP operative, granted anonymity to speak candidly, said there are “no indications that there are enough turn out voters to overcome dropping some persuasion voters.”

Outgoing North Carolina Republican Sen. Thom Tillis said he doesn’t think it would be helpful for Trump to campaign in his state — which the president won in all three of his presidential runs, and where former RNC chair Michael Whatley is struggling to tighten the race against former Gov. Roy Cooper.

“Not in my opinion — just if you take a look at the votes — you take a look at the independents. I don't think he's the one who's going to get them out,” he told POLITICO.

“I think [Trump’s] job is to get the people out who traditionally vote for him and don't show up in off-year elections,” he added. “Our job [as candidates] is to then … create some separation. It's not like you're breaking your loyalty to the president. ... So there are states I think he should go to, there are states I don't think he should go to."

The Whatley campaign, however, feels differently. “Who drives R turnout right now in NC — Trump or Tillis? We would welcome Trump back to NC,” said Whatley’s senior adviser, Jonathan Felts. Both Trump and Vice President JD Vance have been to North Carolina to campaign with Whatley in recent weeks.

Trump’s upcoming stop in a red corner of Ohio outside Dayton is part of a broader campaign swing that reflects the political bind. Other stops scheduled include in deep-red states like Oklahoma and Alabama, as well as in red states with key Senate contests including Ohio, Nebraska and Alaska.

Ironically, the expanding battleground map could make Trump more useful to Republicans in some of the places they are most worried about. As the fight has spread into states and districts he won by double digits, simply turning out more of his base may be enough to make a difference.

The White House argued Trump is the “unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator for the Republican Party.”

“No one can dispute the fact that President Trump has created one of the most robust coalitions in political history with the MAGA movement, and the President understands how to communicate with them,” White House spokesperson Davis Ingle said.

The Republican National Committee and National Republican Congressional Committee also said Trump is still a valuable turnout tool, and their candidates are eager to have the president visit their districts and to appear with him on the campaign trail. The National Republican Senatorial Committee did not respond to a request for comment.

But some of the voters Republicans most need Trump to activate — especially blue-collar white voters in rural areas who came out to vote for him but often skip voting in the midterms — are themselves unhappy with his presidency.

Recent POLITICO polling found that even some of Trump’s strongest supporters — those who identify as MAGA — are souring on his handling of key issues. A POLITICO Poll in August found that a 44% plurality of MAGA Trump voters said the Iran war has made things more expensive for them, while 38% said the war has had no real impact on their costs.

“It's really Trump's voting base that's feeling the pain of Trump the most,” said another Republican operative involved in several battleground races across the country, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the landscape.“They have to turn those people out. But those people are pissed at Trump, so it's this weird dynamic of like: ‘Does he help? Does he hurt? Can he go and encourage the disenfranchised, the really pissed off Republican Trump voter?’” the operative said. “That's really going to be what decides the outcome of this election.”

It’s noteworthy which GOP candidates are enthusiastically coming out to Trump’s rallies — and which are sitting out or staying mum on their plans.

A spokesperson confirmed that Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio), who is locked in a tough race in a state Trump won by double-digits, will attend Trump’s upcoming rally outside of Dayton; a spokesperson for Vivek Ramaswamy, the GOP gubernatorial candidate, did not respond to an inquiry about Ramaswamy’s attendance plans, nor did spokespeople for the trio of GOP House candidates running in Ohio’s competitive 1st, 7th and 9th Districts.

Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson, the GOP Senate candidate in Iowa, recently said the Iran war needs to be “brought to a successful and immediate end,” in a rare public break with Trump. Hinson also did not attend a campaign rally Vice President JD Vance held in western Iowa in mid-September. She did, however, appear in the Oval Office behind Trump earlier this week when he announced a plan to build a $15 billion steel plant in Iowa.  

But with an ever-darkening environment, some Republicans see any efforts to reverse course as better than nothing.

“Everybody sees the polling,” said Daniel Garza, a Texas Republican strategist and president of the conservative LIBRE Initiative. “Is the polling accurate? I have no idea. All I know is that turnout is going to be key to this, and anything helps right now, at this point.”

Jordain Carney and Lisa Kashinsky contributed.

The Supreme Court blocked President Donald Trump’s effort to restrict mail voting. But for Democrats trying to turn out voters, the uncertainty seems harder to put to rest.

Fewer Democrats say they plan to vote by mail in November’s midterms than at the same point in 2024, according to a new NBC News poll, as a separate survey finds declining confidence that the Postal Service will deliver election mail on time. That represents an about-face for a party that has increasingly embraced mail voting since the 2020 pandemic election, forcing Democratic strategists to rethink how they get voters to the polls — and how to convince them their ballots will count.

Quentin James, founder and president of the Collective PAC, said his group is hearing concerns from Black voters about whether their mailed ballots will be secure and counted.

“I think there's confusion,” James said. “We know that the president has spent six months talking about changing the rules regarding mail-in voting, and a lot of folks are concerned about their ballot being secure.”

That confusion comes as Democrats and voting groups weigh how to reassure voters after Trump’s latest effort to restrict mail voting. The president signed an executive order in March seeking to crack down on mail-in voting, citing unproven claims that the process is insecure and vulnerable to electoral fraud.

“The cheating on mail-in voting is legendary. It’s horrible what’s gone on,” Trump said during an Oval Office signing ceremony. “I think this will help a lot with elections.”

Still, the rules for mail ballots — at least nationally — will be effectively the same as 2024 after the Supreme Court rejected the Trump administration’s attempt to enforce the new mail-in ballot delivery regulations in a ruling earlier this month. The high court left in place a lower-court decision that blocked the U.S. Postal Service from implementing the new proposed requirements in the weeks before the midterm election.

Despite that, Democratic voters have signaled they are changing how they’ll vote.

In the NBC poll, 23% of registered Democrats said they plan to vote by mail, down from 34% in September 2024. Thirty-six percent said they plan to vote early in person, up from 30%, while another 36% expect to vote on Election Day.

A Marist poll found that 58% of registered voters were confident the Postal Service would deliver election-related mail to voters and election officials on time, down from 71% in October 2024. Marist also found that Democrats remain more likely than Republicans to plan to vote by mail or absentee ballot, 32% to 12%, respectively.

James said his organization has long encouraged early in-person voting through its Rides to Vote program, which provides transportation to voters without a vehicle. But despite the Supreme Court ruling, his organization is also encouraging people considering voting by mail to use a ride voucher to return their completed ballots directly to the required location.

“The bigger threat is confusion and fear,” he said. “That is the thing that a court case will not solve, and that's what we're really concerned about.”

In Maine, Secretary of State Shenna Bellows said municipal clerks have reported voters canceling absentee ballot requests, including requests to receive ballots automatically in future elections.

Bellows cautioned against a blanket message to vote in person. “We would discourage advocates from telling people not to vote by mail if, for those voters, that’s their only option,” said Bellows, a Democrat who ran this cycle for governor and in the rapid-fire Senate primary, pointing to older and disabled Mainers who rely on absentee voting.

Her office is instead urging voters to make a plan that works for them, return mailed ballots early and use Maine’s online absentee ballot tracking system to check whether a clerk has received and accepted them.

“Our public education efforts have been focused on encouraging voters to make a plan that's right for them, and recognizing that they have the peace of mind of tracking their absentee ballot and the backup option of voting on Election Day if, for any reason, the ballot is delayed by the mail,” Bellows said.

Indivisible, one of the party’s largest grassroots groups, is mounting its own early-vote push and nudging people to cast their ballots early, regardless of how they vote. Co-founder Leah Greenberg said that the group is helping organize an Oct. 17 national day of action to encourage people to vote early under their states’ rules.

“So we were absolutely hearing concern,” Greenberg said. “But more importantly, what we're hearing is people trying to figure out what they can do and how they can organize locally in order to protect elections.”

Greenberg said Indivisible is urging voters to get their ballots in early and emphasizing that a court rejected the administration’s attempt to restrict mail voting.

Still, the ruling hasn’t erased the uncertainty organizers say they are hearing from voters. Greenberg and James described a similar mix of relief and concern among voters.

“People are glad to hear it, but still wary,” Greenberg said.

Democrats, including state election officials who oversee the process, are also looking for ways to boost confidence in the mail system. Nevada Secretary of State Francisco Aguilar has asked his state’s congressional delegation to arrange election observers at postal facilities handling Nevada’s ballots.

In letters to the state’s congressional delegation, Aguilar identified sites in Las Vegas and Reno, as well as facilities in West Sacramento, California, and Salt Lake City, Utah.

Aguilar said nearly 670,000 Nevadans voted by mail in 2024 and argued that having observers present could strengthen confidence in ballot handling. In an interview, he said observers would also signal to postal workers that they have support in the process.

“By having observers there, it gives them the support to say: ‘Hey, we got your back,’” Aguilar said. “We also want to be helpful if there are any concerns — we want to make sure that leadership knows we are not going to stay quiet. We're going to be proactive. We're going to be engaged and we're going to hold them accountable when we need to hold them accountable.”

Aguilar said Rep. Susie Lee (D-Nev.) has requested observers following his letters. Lee’s office did not respond to a request for comment.

USPS said it had received correspondence regarding Aguilar’s request and was reviewing it. “The Postal Service has successfully delivered America’s election mail, and we are confident that we will do so again this year,” Nikolaj Hagen, a Postal Service spokesperson, said.

Hagen pointed to USPS figures showing it delivered 233.3 million pieces of election mail through Aug. 28 in fiscal year 2026, with 97.94% arriving on time. In the 2022 election, USPS handled 105.4 million ballots and delivered 99.93% of those sent by voters to election officials within seven days. In 2024, it handled 222.39 million pieces of ballot mail, with 99.88% delivered to officials within seven days.

Meanwhile, Bellows said Maine is taking a different approach. Local USPS representatives have proposed weekly meetings with her election staff, she said, and her office has relationships with workers at the state’s two distribution centers.

But she noted congressional observers could be useful in larger states where those relationships are less established.

“Maine is a small enough place where, if there were a problem, we would probably know very quickly through union representatives or simply word of mouth,” Bellows said, noting that congressional observers at postal locations could be particularly useful in places “where those relationships may not be as strong or well established.”