Forecasting a central scenario for the U.S. economy in 2026 appears to be a straightforward exercise. But the probability that this baseline forecast would materialize probably does not exceed 50%: the "normal" bell distribution has been replaced by one with unusually "fat tails": the probability of more extreme outcomes, both virtuous and vicious, is significant and equally possible. The U.S. economy is not so much on a single trajectory as it is locked in a tense tug-of-war between three distinct futures: a "Goldilocks-lite" central baseline, a productivity-fueled upside scenario, and a...
JD Vance closed out the final day of Turning Point USA's AmericaFest convention, rallying conservatives around themes of Christianity and the America First movement.