Real Clear Politics

Jews Face Horrors With Humor

Jokes can deny humanity or revel in what sets us apart. The truth, however, is invariably sadder.

Beware of Central Economic Forecasts for 2026

Forecasting a central scenario for the U.S. economy in 2026 appears to be a straightforward exercise. But the probability that this baseline forecast would materialize probably does not exceed 50%: the "normal" bell distribution has been replaced by one with unusually "fat tails": the probability of more extreme outcomes, both virtuous and vicious, is significant and equally possible. The U.S. economy is not so much on a single trajectory as it is locked in a tense tug-of-war between three distinct futures: a "Goldilocks-lite" central baseline, a productivity-fueled upside scenario, and a...

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