Politico

The next races where Latino voters will be decisive

Democrats watched with mouths agape this week as Latino voters, many of whom have sat out previous primary seasons, turned out in droves for James Talarico in Texas.

But the push to win back the elusive and swingy coalition that proved pivotal to President Donald Trump’s 2024 victory goes way beyond the closely watched Lone Star State. This is a story that kicked off last year as Democrats overperformed in Latino-dominant districts across Virginia and New Jersey. It’s one that multiple candidates and strategists told Playbook could make or break Dems’ ambitions to take the House — and there’s a handful of key districts across the country that will offer the next test cases.

From Colorado to Arizona to Nebraska, top candidates in Democratic primaries are watching the record turnout numbers from Latinos and making these voters a top target for their campaigns to flip their razor-edge districts now held by Republicans. It’s an early bet as they face primaries in the months ahead — but in seats that in the past have been won by less than a percentage point, these voters could make the difference.

“They vote for Trump, they vote for Mikie Sherrill, they just showed up [in Texas] in record numbers,” said Chuck Rocha, a strategist who advised Talarico’s campaign. “So what that tells you is you should start talking to them sooner with a persuadable message.”

Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, the state’s so-called blue dot which is represented by the retiring Republican Rep. Don Bacon, is a top target for Democrats to flip this year. So too is Colorado’s 8th District, held by incumbent Republican Rep. Gabe Evans. There’s also Arizona’s 6th District, which recently was added to the DCCC’s Red-to-Blue program as Democrats aim to edge out incumbent GOP Rep. Juan Ciscomani. All of these districts have an influential minority of Latinos that local strategists say are crucial to any Democratic victory.

Enter this crop of Democratic candidates who watched Texas’ results roll in with an eye toward their own races: Denise Powell in Nebraska, Manny Rutinel in Colorado and JoAnna Mendoza in Arizona.

In each district, there’s a growing enthusiasm on the ground among Latinos that indicates they’ll be major players in this cycle. “Especially when you have a contested primary in a year like this, every vote matters,” Powell said in an interview. “And I know that’s something so cliche that we all say and whatever,” she said. But when it comes to Latinos, “we're not taking anything for granted.”

Rutinel, one of the top Democrats running in Colorado’s 8th, told Playbook he’s buoyed by the surge in Latino voters that he’s seen. “This is Colorado's most Latino district. It's drawn for Latino representation,” he said. “And I think folks right now are feeling both scared on the one hand about what's happening with ICE brutality in this district and beyond, and they're also feeling energized to fight back.”

And he’s not the only one in the primary watching the Latino vote: former state legislator Shannon Bird has earned the endorsement of top labor unions with Latino membership. “We’ve already knocked on thousands of doors in heavily Hispanic neighborhoods and attended dozens of community and cultural events organized by local Hispanic institutions,” Bird’s campaign manager Eve Zhurbinskiy said in a statement.

Rutinel and his team are leaning into his background to persuade voters ahead of the June 30 election: “I’m the only Latino candidate in this race and bilingual, I have the ability to speak directly to these communities,” he said. Colorado’s 8th was one of the most expensive House races of the 2024 cycle, and it’s 39 percent Latino. Should Rutinel win, he’d face Evans for a Latino vs. Latino showdown.

Over in Arizona, even its lower Latino-dominant districts like the 6th are still heavily influenced by the coalition. “This is just a part of the world where one out of every three people is Latino,” a Democratic strategist working on Arizona races said. It’s a district that contains parts of Tucson, a major Air Force base and more rural on-the-border voters.

The path to victory there for a Democratic candidate like Mendoza is a bit closer: her primary isn’t nearly as contentious, but the district is a toss-up. Ciscomani, in the 2022 midterm season, carried the district by fewer than 6,000 votes. A Mendoza and Ciscomani matchup will make for another Latino vs. Latino showdown.

But of course, whether it be in Colorado, Arizona or Nebraska, the Democratic nominees will inevitably face a tough battle against Republicans, who’ve made significant inroads with Latinos over the past several years. Republicans are still pointing to those significant margins as they get deeper into the primary season and beyond, and they’re projecting confidence that the margins will stick.

“Democrats haven't learned a thing from the historic realignment among Hispanic voters in recent elections,” RNC spokesperson Zach Kraft said in a statement. Trump’s agenda of “secure borders, safe communities, and a strong economy resonates with all hardworking Americans and is enabling Republicans to be on offense,” he said.

But with Texas delivering such a resounding early sign of Latino engagement for Democrats, the campaigns are growing more bullish that these voters may start trending back in their direction. “We don't treat Latino voters like a turnout target. We treat them like they are a persuasion target,” the Arizona strategist said.

Latino voters have historically had abysmal turnout in midterm elections. Many report in polls having never interacted with any campaign. It’s making the recent trends all the more eye-popping, and reaffirming Powell’s campaign strategy to target them in a place like Nebraska’s 2nd, where Latinos in South Omaha make up about 10 percent of the district.

Powell is also facing fierce competition to win over the district’s Latinos ahead of the May 12 primary. John Cavanaugh, a state senator and one of the primary front-runners, said in a statement that he’s also pursuing an “aggressive Latino voter contact plan” building on “prominent Latino endorsements, my work with and for the Hispanic community in the Legislature, and my record of showing up in every part of this district.”

The throughline connecting all these campaigns is the significance of the Latino voter margins. Powell said Democratic campaigns like hers were “glued to Texas” to see if the turnout trend would continue to bear out. With all signs pointing to yes, expect the Latino outreach to grow in these must-watch races.

“We’re paying close attention to it,” a Democratic strategist working in Nebraska said. “We’re communicating to [Latino voters] in every way that we possibly can, and making sure they know we need to turn out in this primary.”

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The rural Democrats who say their party has affordability all wrong

Most Democrats think their key to winning back control of Congress in the midterms will be selling voters on an affordability agenda and bashing President Donald Trump’s handling of the economy.

But some in their party — running long-shot campaigns in rural regions against Republican incumbents — say all the affordability talk has lost the plot.

“Democrats on a national level have discovered ‘affordability’ as a winning strategy, as some magic bullet that's going to win them elections all over the country,” Hallie Shoffner, who won the Democratic Senate primary in Arkansas earlier this week, told POLITICO in an interview.

“Established D.C Democrats like [Senate Minority Leader] Chuck Schumer [are] talking about affordability, and I'm sorry, but everybody in Arkansas is going to give him the side eye, because what does he know about affordability?” she added.

A spokesperson for Schumer said in a statement that he “knows that working families are being crushed by higher costs because of Donald Trump’s failed policies and his corrupt bargain with big corporations. That’s why Leader Schumer and Senate Democrats have been fighting to lower costs for people on everything from housing to energy to health care.”

After stinging defeats in 2024, Democrats bounced back in 2025’s off-year elections when Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger, New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani sailed to victory, each behind a campaign that centered on pocketbook issues and sought to frame Democrats as the party that could bring down prices for everyday Americans.

Now, party leaders want to ride that messaging into November amid falling approval of Trump’s handling of the economy. Spanberger was a special guest at House Democrats’ annual retreat last week, where she gave her advice for how to hammer an affordability message just one day after she skewered Trump over cost-of-living concerns during the Democratic rebuttal to his State of the Union address. And Republicans are increasingly worried that the outlook on the economy is weakening amid rising gas prices stemming from the war in Iran.

But some rural Democrats still aren’t convinced that the party is striking the right tone.

“It feels disingenuous,” said Callie Barr, who is running to flip Michigan’s 1st Congressional District.

“The standard of living for most folks in rural areas like mine has been declining for the past 40 years under both administrations,” Barr said. “And then all of a sudden, it's like, ‘Oh, affordability is now a talking point, maybe I can win an election off of it, I'm going to start using it in everything.’”

Barr and Shoffner said they hope to see national Democrats put the money where their mouth is by investing in “long-shot” races like theirs. “My hope is that actually there’s real teeth behind this, because I think people just don’t believe it,” Barr said.

Each has an uphill battle in their own right. Shoffner is running in Arkansas against incumbent Republican Sen. Tom Cotton, who has served in the Senate since he defeated Sen. Mark Pryor in 2014 — the last time a Democrat held the seat. Barr is running in a rematch against GOP Rep. Jack Bergman, who beat her by more than 21 points in 2024.

“It makes sense for the Democratic Party to reinvest themselves in places like us, like Arkansas, and give candidates like me with these gray-collar backgrounds a seat at the table — because I'm going to be honest with you, they might learn something about what it really means to talk about affordability,” said Shoffner, a sixth-generation farmer who had to shut down her family’s farm when she realized it couldn’t make money.

That’s similar to messaging that’s been championed by Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.). The rural auto shop owner who flipped Washington’s last red district in 2022 has vocally criticized her party for being out of touch with the middle class.

“When you say affordability, people roll their eyes,” said Michael Ceraso, a Democratic strategist working with both candidates who is an alum of Bernie Sanders’ 2016 presidential campaign. “In many of the areas [where] affordability has been a crisis, Dems aren't investing or building infrastructure to do anything to mobilize human beings in those areas.”

The DNC last year announced a new program that gives $17,500 per month to each state party and an additional $5,000 per month to those in states run by Republicans, and the party this year has been buoyed by a string of overperformances, including in ruby-red districts. But much of the attention has focused on the most competitive races across battleground states.

Of course, it can also be a shrewd political tactic to blast the Democratic Party — which boasts a roster of stars from liberal, urban areas who remain deeply unpopular in conservative, rural ones. But Barr isn't running her campaign with any labels that may be tied to her party ID. “Maybe you're running on a ticket, but that shouldn't be your whole identity,” she said.

“When I meet people, they’ll say, ‘Oh, what ticket are you on?’” Barr added. “And I always start with, ‘Well, I'm an American.’”

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Gonzales is out in Texas, and Dems see a chance to beat ‘The AKGuy’

Democrats see a new opportunity brewing deep in the heart of Texas, where Republicans solving one problem may have inadvertently created a new one.

Rep. Tony Gonzales’ decision to drop his reelection bid over an infidelity scandal has elevated Brandon Herrera, a controversial social media figure known by his handle “TheAKGuy,” to the Republican nomination for Texas’ 23rd Congressional District.

Democrats in the district are hoping the convergence of scandal, a lightning-rod GOP candidate, signs of a major snap-back by Latino voters in Texas, and a potentially competitive Senate race could help lift Democratic turnout enough to flip this district for the first time in a decade.

“It's definitely more competitive than it's ever been,” said former Rep. Pete Gallego (D-Texas), who held the seat through 2014.

The biggest reason the race might become competitive is Herrera himself. The YouTuber, gun manufacturer and Second Amendment activist has millions of online followers — and a track record of off-color, edgelord jokes that are ripe fodder for campaign ads. Herrera has come under fire for a long history of posting Nazi imagery and his involvement in a group called Sons of Confederate Veterans. Jokes like his line “I often think about putting a gun in my mouth. So, I'm basically an honorary veteran” were a flashpoint for criticism in his 2024 primary against Gonzales.

Herrera did not respond to a request for comment.

After Gonzales dropped out of the race on Thursday night, the Democratic-aligned House Majority PAC quickly pumped out a barrage of old clips of Herrera on a series of podcasts including one where is seen marching and firing a gun overlaid with the German song “Erika” associated with Nazi Germany.

National and local headwinds are also blowing against the GOP.

Republicans in Texas – usually the dominating force in statewide politics – have weathered a rocky start to the 2026 midterms. Sen. John Cornyn, a fixture of Lone Star conservative politics, is stuck in a bruising runoff election with MAGA firebrand Attorney General Ken Paxton, opening a possible path for Democrats to compete in the Senate race. And Latino voters turned out in massive numbers in Tuesday’s Democratic primaries, an early sign that Texas Hispanics, after moving hard to the right in recent years, might be swinging back in a big way this election.

There’s no guarantee that national Democrats will invest in the sprawling district, however.

The heavily Hispanic district, which runs from suburban San Antonio hundreds of miles along the border to outside El Paso, is a tough lift for Democrats — but not an impossible one. In the newly gerrymandered Texas map, it’s the least-red district held by a Republican in Texas. President Donald Trump won it by 17 points in 2024, but Hillary Clinton narrowly carried the district in 2016.

At this early stage in the changed race, neither the House Democratic campaign arm nor its biggest aligned super PAC has yet to publicly announce a commitment of resources to flipping the seat.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee does not currently list the district as an offensive target but is closely monitoring the race, according to a person familiar with national Democrats’ House strategy, granted anonymity to candidly describe strategy. The group gleefully highlighted Herrera’s elevation in a statement on Friday.

A spokesperson for the House Majority PAC, CJ Warnke, said in a statement that “nothing is off the table” when it comes to spending in the district.

Herrera was already running a tough primary campaign against Gonzales — but the congressman’s recent scandal consumed his campaign and forced him from his reelection bid. Text messages published by the San Antonio Express-News and other outlets last month revealed new evidence of a sexual relationship between the member of Congress and a staffer, who later killed herself. POLITICO has not independently reviewed the messages.

Gonzales later admitted to the affair with his former staffer, Regina Santos-Aviles, and late Thursday decided to end his reelection bid as pressure mounted from Republicans leadership for him to step aside.

Democrats argue Herrera has his own baggage that may be hard to overcome as well.

“Maybe I'm just an old-fashioned East Texas farm kid, but I tend to be anti-Nazi, and I have a feeling that people on the western side of the state feel a similar way,” said Kendall Scudder, chair of the Texas Democratic Party.

“So, you know, go ahead and nominate the adulterer, sexual predator, or nominate the actual Nazi. Regardless, we outvoted them, and we're going to do it again in November,” he added, citing Tuesday’s strong Democratic turn out in primaries up and down the ballot.

Herrera as the GOP nominee makes for "a little bit of an easier campaign because he's not as well known as Gonzales," said Katy Padilla Stout, a local attorney and the Democratic nominee who is now set to face off against Herrera in November.

National Republicans were quick to throw cold water on their opponents’ hopes to expand their battleground House map into West Texas.

“Texas’ 23rd District is deep red, and Democrats know it,” said Christian Martinez, a spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said in a statement.

“While they talk a big game in Washington, they don’t even have a credible recruit and are too busy defending their own vulnerable members across Texas to compete here.”

The district, though drawn to favor the GOP candidate, is “pretty moderate and they're practical people,” said Gallego, the former Democratic member of Congress. The north side of San Antonio at the far east end of the district map “is not monolithic Republican anymore,” he added, which gives Democrats more room to maneuver around Herrera, a conservative hardliner.

After Gonzales ended his bid, “I thought for sure it would be the Dems that would be blowing me up,” said Padilla Stout. Instead, she recounted, it was mostly Republicans who got in touch shortly after the news broke.

Their message to her: “We're ready, give me a sign. Where do I sign up?”

Former President Barack Obama speaks during final public tribute to the late Rev. Jesse Jackson

CHICAGO — Former President Barack Obama said the presidential runs in the 1980s by the late Rev. Jesse Jackson Sr. set the stage for other Black leaders, including himself.

“The message he sent to a 22-year-old child of a single mother with a funny name, an outsider, was that maybe there wasn’t any place or any room where we didn’t belong,” Obama said Friday at a Chicago church as mourners paid a final public tribute for the civil rights legend.

“He paved the road for so many others to follow,” Obama said of Jackson.

Obama is joined by two other former Democratic presidents, Joe Biden and Bill Clinton, at a celebration of life for Jackson. Obama received the loudest round of applause as the three entered the chamber.

“We are living in a time when it can be hard to hope,” Obama said. “Each day we wake up to some new assault to our democratic institutions. Another setback to the idea of the rule of law, an offense to common decency. Every day you wake up to things you just didn’t think were possible.”

“Each day we are told by folks in high office to fear each other,” said Obama, referring to the current Republican leadership in Washington.

Former Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris is also listed as a speaker on the program, according to the Rainbow PUSH Coalition, the organization that Jackson founded.

President Donald Trump, who praised Jackson on social media after he died and also shared photos of the two of them together, was not attending the service, according to his public schedule issued by the White House.

Thousands attend Jackson memorial service

The event honors the protege of the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. and two-time presidential candidate and follows memorial services that drew large crowds in Chicago and South Carolina, where Jackson was born. Friday’s celebration — at an influential Black church with a 10,000-seat arena — is expected to be the largest.

Crowds of attendees waited in long lines outside the church on the city’s South Side as television screens played excerpts of some of Jackson’s most famous speeches. Inside, vendors sold pins with his 1984 presidential slogan and hoodies with his “I Am Somebody” mantra.

Along with a slew of Illinois elected leaders, notable attendees included actor and producer Tyler Perry, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, and political activist and theologian Cornel West. NBA Hall of Famer and Chicago native Isiah Thomas was one of the speakers.

Marketing professional Chelsia Bryan said Friday that she decided to attend the memorial service because it was “a chance to be part of something historic.”

“As a Black woman, knowing that someone pretty much gave their life, dedicated their life to make sure I can do the things that I can do now, he’s worth honoring,” Bryan said.

Jackson Jr.: Everyone welcome

Jesse Jackson Jr. said all were welcome to celebrate his father’s life.

“Democrat, Republican, liberal, conservative, right wing, left wing because his life is broad enough to cover the full spectrum of what it means to be an American,” Jackson Jr. said last month. “Dad would have wanted us to have a great meeting to discuss our differences, to find ways of moving forward and moving together.”

The elder Jackson died last month at age 84 after battling a rare neurological disorder that affected his mobility and ability to speak. Family members say he continued coming into the office until last year and communicated through hand signals. His final public appearances included the 2024 Democratic National Convention in Chicago.

Sitting in the crowd was 90-year-old Mary Lovett. She said Jackson’s advocacy inspired her many times, from when she moved from Mississippi to Chicago in the 1960s, taught elementary school and became a mom. She twice voted for Jackson during both of his presidential runs and appreciated how he always spoke up for underrepresented people. “He’s gone, but I hope his legacy lives,” she said. “I hope we can remember what he tried to teach us.”

Jackson’s service was to the poor, underrepresented

Jackson’s pursuits were countless, taking him to all corners of the globe: Advocating for the poor and underrepresented on issues including voting rights, health care, job opportunities and education. He scored diplomatic victories with world leaders, and through Rainbow PUSH Coalition, he channeled cries for Black pride and self-determination into corporate boardrooms, pressuring executives to make America a more open and equitable society.

His son, Yusef Jackson, who runs the Rainbow PUSH Coalition, recalled how his father carried a well-worn Bible but also showed his faith by showing up to picket lines.

“He lived a revolutionary Christian faith rooted in justice, nonviolence and the moral righteousness,” Yusef Jackson said Friday. “He was deeply involved in the political struggles of his time, but his gift was that he could rise above them. It’s not about the left wing or the right wing. It takes two wings to fly. For him, the goal was always the moral center.”

Jackson’s services in Chicago and South Carolina drew civic leaders, school groups and everyday people who said they were touched by Jackson’s work, from scholarship programs to advocating for inmates. Several states flew flags at half-staff in his honor.

Services in Washington, D.C., were tabled after a request to allow Jackson to lie in honor in the United States Capitol rotunda was denied by House Speaker Mike Johnson, who said the space is typically reserved for select officials, including former presidents. Details on a future event have not been made public.

Dems aren’t sure whether to actually spend big to flip Texas

It didn’t take long for Democrats’ hopes of flipping Texas to dim.

Enthusiasm remains high for the party’s Senate nominee, James Talarico, but national Democrats aren’t sure how far they should go to support him — particularly if Sen. John Cornyn emerges from the GOP runoff in May. Interviews with nearly a dozen high-dollar donor advisers and strategists poured cold water on the likelihood that the party would fully commit to the staggering price tag it’d take to finally flip Texas.

“No one’s taking Texas seriously,” said a Democratic bundler who, like most others, was granted anonymity to speak candidly about intra-party dynamics.

Among their concerns is that Cornyn did better than expected in the GOP primary against Attorney General Ken Paxton, and with President Donald Trump’s potential endorsement would be able to ease his runoff victory. Democrats planning for Talarico to compete against Paxton, a scandal-ridden MAGA darling, are instead facing the prospect of trying to oust a 24-year moderate incumbent in a state that hasn’t voted for a Senate Democrat in nearly four decades.

There are also competing priorities for national spending — just Wednesday evening, Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) dropped his re-election bid in a state Senate Democrats held as recently as 2018 — potentially elevating it as a target for spending.

Underlying it all, Democrats said, is the reality that contesting Texas would require a massive injection of cash — while there are other, cheaper options on the Senate landscape.

“We have to be practical about how we use our resources,” said Alex Hoffman, a Democratic donor adviser. “You need a perfect storm to kill a white whale, and if it’s going to be Cornyn [in the general election], then it’s not a perfect storm.”

Democrats have long dreamed of turning Texas blue. But the idea of flipping the state — much less retaking the Senate overall — appeared laughable last year, when the party hit new lows in its public polling and sustained sweeping losses in 2024. But a string of overperformances in off-year and special election races, combined with Trump’s own stubbornly low approval rating, have Democrats increasingly bullish about their chances.

“If I’m being super honest, Texas would not be within the reach of our boat here, as fishermen of the white whale, but for the wave moment we're in,” said Tory Gavito, a Democratic donor who leads the progressive donor network Way To Win.

Tuesday’s results gave them another boost when Talarico, a social media star and prolific grassroots fundraiser, easily dispatched Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas). He now has a head start on Republicans, who after already dropping $70 million to lift Cornyn, must continue battling it out for another two and a half months through a runoff — which some are predicting could cost upwards of $100 million.

Texas Democrats see this as the moment to strike. Gavito said Democrats have built to this moment, cycle after cycle. Back in 2014, when President Barack Obama won with a young, multi-racial coalition, Democrats believed it was just a matter of time before they’d eventually flip Texas, a youthful, diverse state.

But Trump, both in 2016 and 2024, whittled down Democrats’ advantages with young, diverse voters, suggesting Texas was further out of reach than they thought. Then-Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas), boosted by more than $80 million, came the closest in 2018, losing to Sen. Ted Cruz by 2.6 percentage points. When former-Rep. Colin Allred tried to oust Cruz in 2024, he lost by 8.5 points.

Gavito said it would be “important” for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senate Majority PAC, Democrats’ top Senate super PAC, to invest in Texas to actually flip it because even though “Talarico has proven he can raise a bunch of non-corporate money ... leadership, like Schumer, should see that their job is to be bullish.”

She also argued against Democrats having to pick between investing in Texas or other states — “you can do both things,” she said.

That’s a tall ask in a cycle when Democrats are already struggling mightily in the money race.

House and Senate Republicans entered 2026 with more than double the cash equivalent of their Democratic counterparts. The Republican National Committee has a more than $100 million cash advantage over the Democratic National Committee. Should the Supreme Court lift coordination limits, a looming decision cited by several donor advisers, then they believe Republicans will have an even more lopsided advantage.

“If the goal is to win the House and Senate, then there are other, cheaper, more competitive places,” said a Democratic consultant who works on Senate races. “Do you want to try to get another $150 million for Texas or another $50 million to put Iowa or Montana or Nebraska in play? That’s the Schumer calculation.”

Before Tuesday’s primary, Schumer hadn’t placed Texas in the DSCC’s top tier of battleground races. Instead, North Carolina, Maine, Ohio and Alaska ranked highest in his list of offensive targets. That could change, however, should Paxton ultimately emerge from the runoff.

“If Paxton wins the runoff, the race is on the battleground list,” a person familiar with the DSCC’s thinking said, granted anonymity to describe private conversations. “If Cornyn makes it out, I wouldn’t count it out [either].”

When asked about Texas on Wednesday, Schumer said “Tuesday’s results in Texas are a step forward in our quest to win the Senate,” and called Talarico “a great candidate, and we can win.”

SMP spokesperson Lauren French reiterated that “the majority runs through Ohio, Maine, Iowa, Alaska, and North Carolina … but it can also run through Texas.”

Republicans, for their part, continue to scoff at the idea Texas is competitive. In a statement, NRSC Regional Press Secretary Samantha Cantrell said: “James Talarico thinks ‘God is nonbinary,’ wants to lay a welcome mat on our southern border, and would prioritize the rights of our ‘trans community’, all things Texans will never vote for in November.”

Even if Democrats can’t ultimately flip Texas in November, they believe Talarico’s campaign — and a potentially weakened Cornyn — will force the GOP to spend cash to defend it, turning it into “a money sinkhole for Republicans,” said Cooper Teboe, a Democratic donor adviser and strategist.

“Do we win Ohio by one [percentage point] because of this?” Teboe added.

Some Republican strategists are warning of the possibility.

“In every race, from this point until November, there's going to be the Texas undertones: You spent $70 million there to protect an incumbent,” a GOP strategist said, granted anonymity to discuss the issue candidly. “I think there is some frustration amongst the consulting class of like, all right, can we focus on Georgia and Michigan, some of these other places a little bit more?”

Erin Doherty contributed to this report. 

Top Mamdani aide takes progressive project to the UK

NEW YORK — Morris Katz, a top adviser to New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, quietly traveled to the United Kingdom last month to meet with local progressive politicians hoping to learn tools of the trade from the young strategist.

Katz’s trip coincided with the rise of a new left-wing challenge to the embattled Labour government from the Green Party, which snatched away a Manchester-area parliamentary seat in a February special election.

One of the architects of Mamdani’s stunning election last year, Katz confirmed to POLITICO that he had ventured into British politics and described it as part of a global political struggle. He said he was there to offer members of the U.K.’s Labour and Green parties advice on mounting effective campaigns for elected office.

“The fight against the aligned interests of the oligarchy and the far right is an international one, and I’ll try to be helpful wherever I can,” the 26-year-old progressive political strategist said this week when asked about his February trip.

Among the players Katz met with: Rosie Wrighting and Gordon McKee, two Labour members of Parliament, and Rowenna Davis, a Labour politician running for mayor of Croydon, a town in South London. Katz confirmed Labour and Green operatives initiated contact and asked him to come over for the meetings.

Mamdani has emerged as something of a political beacon for progressive parties in other countries, including the U.K. and Canada.

The British left’s overture to Katz highlights how progressive movements around the world are looking at the Mamdani campaign’s populist playbook as ripe for replication. And it speaks to how elements of the American left increasingly see themselves as part of a global project.

Katz said he has continued to hold virtual meetings with members of both parties since returning stateside and plans to speak with Green leadership in the coming weeks.

The in-person sit-downs in the U.K., Katz said, revolved around his strategy and messaging techniques, with the U.K. politicians seeking to glean more insight into his overall approach. The Mamdani aide has become known for producing made-to-go-viral social media content highlighting progressive policy prescriptions for bread-and-butter issues like childcare costs.

Katz said his engagements in the U.K. were unpaid and that he’s not looking to start running campaigns across the pond this year, in part because he’s busy with the U.S. congressional midterms. But he expressed openness to working with progressives there on a paid basis in the future, opening the door to a key Mamdani adviser becoming an international political fixer.

Katz wouldn’t be the first U.S. progressive to help like-minded British politicians. Advisers to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) helped former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s unsuccessful 2017 campaign for prime minister.

Drawing connections across different countries’ politics can be complicated, and while Mamdani’s high-octane style of campaigning can generate excitement in places other than New York, it's not clear that everyone he met with on his travels overseas buys into his ideological project. Wrighting and McKee are prolific on social media platforms like TikTok, much like the New York City executive, but are mainstream Labour backbenchers.

Spokespeople for the Green and Labour parties did not return requests for comment about the meetings with Katz.

The Labour Party lost a key parliamentary election last week after the Greens, a much smaller party, ran a 34-year-old candidate who focused her campaign on tackling a spiraling cost-of-living crisis. The candidate, 34-year-old former plumber Hannah Spencer, has argued since her victory that it's a winning message for the Green Party to continue emphasizing.

“We ran a hopeful campaign backed by thousands of volunteers and activists. We defeated the parties of billionaire donors,” Spencer wrote in an op-ed in The Guardian last week.

Sound familiar?

Mamdani defeated Andrew Cuomo, New York’s former governor, in last summer’s mayoral primary after aggressively centering his campaign around proposals aimed at making the city more affordable for working class New Yorkers.

The U.K.’s left-leaning parties, especially Labour following last month’s election setback, likely see Mamdani’s messaging model as something they can harness in future campaigns. That’s where Katz comes in.

Katz, who calls himself a populist politics “believer,” has been credited with spearheading the Mamdani campaign’s laser focus on promising to fight for a more affordable city by raising taxes on the rich to expand social safety nets, including making public transit and child care programs free. Though he hasn’t joined Mamdani’s administration, Katz is seen as very close with the mayor and continues to advise him on both governmental and political matters, joining him, for instance, for both of his high-profile meetings with President Donald Trump.

“The Brits can use some excitement in their politics,” Doug Muzzio, a longtime political scientist in New York who is not affiliated with Mamdani or his team, said when asked to opine on Katz’s U.K. moves. “So if Mamdani’s engaging style is something that can be replicated over there that would probably be very welcome.”

It isn’t unusual for campaign consultants to embark on a traveling road show abroad after successful domestic stints. Political advice is among the most American of exports: Chris LaCivita, Trump’s co-campaign manager, advised Sali Berisha of Albania's opposition party after his 2024 White House run. Bob Shrum, the former Democratic presidential candidate adviser and speechwriter, advised Ehud Barak in Israel's 1999 election for prime minister and the British Labour Party under former Prime Minister Tony Blair. And James Carville, the veteran political strategist, also advised Blair, along with having done work in more than 20 countries.

“A guy gets elected and they like you, and somebody calls: ‘Hey, somebody from such and such called us,’ and they'll recommend people. I mean, it's a kind of networking thing," Carville said. “The perception is our political consultants are better than they actually are.”

But Katz’s adventures abroad likely say more about his principal than the consultant. Of Mamdani, Carville says: “He’s an object of curiosity.” In the same way that former President Bill Clinton’s popularity abroad juiced Carville’s prospects, Mamdani and his retinue are drawing longing glances from international compatriots.

“A lot of people hired me just to say we got Clinton's guy,” Carville said.

And now more than ever, an appetite for progressive insights is sweeping Europe: Just last month, organizers of the Munich Security Conference hosted Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), who in her remarks connected income inequality to the global rise of authoritarianism.

“Voters in democracies in Europe and elsewhere are responding to a lot of the same things that American voters are,” said Matt Duss, who advised Ocasio-Cortez on her Munich trip and is executive vice president at the progressive think tank Center for International Policy. “That's a system of government that has not delivered for them, that they see as captured by special interests that are not responsive to their needs.”

Duss, who also previously served as foreign policy adviser to Bernie Sanders, said there is a global appetite for that brand of progressivism.

“I do think Bernie obviously has inspired a lot of colleagues in other democracies. Mamdani is a name that we hear a lot from our colleagues in Europe on the left,” Duss said. “People are watching and learning from each other. American progressives have things to learn as our colleagues in Europe innovate and vice versa.”

Going international is not without risks.

Witness, for example, Ocasio-Cortez’s reception in Munich, on-camera and widely clipped miscues on everything from mislabeling the Trans-Atlantic partnership the Trans-Pacific Partnership to suggesting Venezuela was below not above the Equator. (On the ground, leaders’ embrace of her was warmer than the social media maw.)

Were Katz to get officially involved in the U.S., he may not go at it alone. He is the co-founder of Fight Agency, a consulting firm made up of a number of veterans of the American progressive movement who could also get roped into working with him overseas. Among them: Rebecca Katz, an alum of former New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio’s administration who has managed a number of successful congressional campaigns in recent years.

Rebecca Katz, who is not related to Morris Katz, did not comment for this story.

Domestically, Morris Katz’s travels abroad posed some obstacles for a candidate in his stable.

“It was very hard to communicate with him and his team during the January, February timeframe, because he was over there,” said Nathan Sage, the former Iowa Senate candidate and Katz client who dropped out of the race in mid-February. “I have no idea what he's doing. I have no idea what that is, but I do know that it was difficult.”

Despite that, Sage said he would recommend Katz’s firm to others.

John Johnston contributed to this report.

The nation’s cartoonists on the week in politics

Every week political cartoonists throughout the country and across the political spectrum apply their ink-stained skills to capture the foibles, memes, hypocrisies and other head-slapping events in the world of politics. The fruits of these labors are hundreds of cartoons that entertain and enrage readers of all political stripes. Here's an offering of the best of this week's crop, picked fresh off the Toonosphere. Edited by Matt Wuerker.